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AAPL iPhone 17 release
Cheat Sheets presented by stocktwits
APPLE INC (AAPL)
🍎📱 iPhone 17 & Ultra-Thin iPhone Air "Awe-Dropping" September Launch
September 2025 Product Report | $408.6B TTM Revenue (+5.97% Y/Y) with $3.47T Market Cap
💰 Market Cap: $3.47T | 📊 Revenue: $408.6B (+6% Y/Y) | 🏦 Services: $27.4B Q3
📈 iPhone Air: 5.6mm Thick | 💳 AI Translation: Real-Time
$226.84
📉 -$7.16 (-3.2%) Post-Event
Pre-Orders: Sept 12 → Launch Sept 19
🎯 Price Target Scenarios
12-Month Horizon
$180
Bear Case (-21%)
2026 Target
AI Competition | China Tensions
📊 Valuation Calculation:
• 2026E EPS: $6.50 × P/E Multiple: 28x = $182 (Rounded to $180)
🔻 Key Assumptions:
Google/OpenAI dominate AI space • China bans iPhone completely • Tariff costs exceed $2B annually • Services growth stalls below 10%
$250
Base Case (+10%)
2026 Target
Steady Growth | AI Integration
📊 Valuation Calculation:
• 2026E EPS: $7.50 × P/E Multiple: 33x = $248 (Rounded to $250)
⚖️ Key Assumptions:
iPhone 17 cycle meets expectations • Apple Intelligence gains traction • Services grow 12-15% annually • China stabilizes at current levels
$300
Bull Case (+32%)
2026 Target
AI Breakthrough | Wearables Boom
📊 Valuation Calculation:
• 2026E EPS: $8.50 × P/E Multiple: 35x = $298 (Rounded to $300)
🚀 Key Assumptions:
Apple Intelligence revolutionizes Siri • Vision Pro achieves mass adoption • Services reach $35B+ quarterly • iPhone Air drives premium upgrade cycle
💡 Bottom Line for Retail Investors
⚡
First Major iPhone Redesign Since 2017
iPhone Air at 5.6mm thickness - thinnest iPhone ever with breakthrough titanium design
🏦
$3.47T Market Cap Giant
World's most valuable company with $408.6B TTM revenue and 46.5% gross margins
🤖
Apple Intelligence AI Revolution
iOS 26 "Liquid Glass" design with real-time translation and enhanced Siri
📱
Premium Hardware Innovation
iPhone 17 Pro with 8x optical zoom, 48MP triple camera system, Center Stage selfies
📈 September 9, 2025 "Awe-Dropping" iPhone Event
Stock Down 3.2% to $226.84 on Muted Reaction
📱
iPhone Air
5.6mm Thickness
$999 Starting Price | Replaces Plus
💰
$799-$1,199
Price Range
256GB Base Storage (2x Upgrade)
📅
Sept 12
Pre-Orders Start
Launch Sept 19
📉
-3.2%
Stock Reaction
Sell-the-News Event
👨💼 Tim Cook & iPhone Strategy: "Biggest Leap Ever for iPhone" with AI-First Approach
🎯 iPhone Air: 5.6mm thick - 32% thinner than iPhone 16 Pro, competing directly with Samsung Galaxy S25 Edge
🤖 Apple Intelligence: Real-time translation in AirPods Pro 3, enhanced Siri, and privacy-focused AI processing
📸 Camera System: Center Stage selfie camera across all models, 48MP dual/triple camera systems, 8x optical zoom in Pro Max
🛡️ Durability: Ceramic Shield 2 with 3x better scratch resistance, titanium construction, 35% recycled content commitment
⌚ Apple Watch Series 11: Hypertension detection, 5G connectivity, sleep scoring - $399 starting price
💾 Storage: All models start with 256GB storage (double previous), iPhone 17 Pro Max offers 2TB option for power users
📊 2024/Q3 2025 Financial Performance & Growth Metrics
| Metric | Current Value | Y/Y Performance |
|---|---|---|
| TTM Revenue | $408.6B | +5.97% Growth |
| Q3 2025 Revenue | $94.04B | +10% Growth |
| iPhone Revenue Q3 | $44.58B | +13% Growth |
| Services Revenue Q3 | $27.42B | +13% Growth |
iPhone Revenue Share48.69% of Total Revenue
Global Smartphone Market Share19% vs Samsung 19.7%
💰 Profitability Machine
"46.5% gross margin in Q3 2025, $27.4B services revenue with double-digit growth - strongest quarterly growth since December 2021"
🚀 Why AAPL Bulls Are Right
- ✅Unmatched Financial Performance: $408.6B TTM revenue (+6% growth), 46.5% gross margins, $27.4B services revenue (+13% Y/Y), strongest quarterly growth since December 2021
- ✅iPhone Innovation Breakthrough: First major redesign since 2017 with iPhone Air at 5.6mm thickness, Ceramic Shield 2 (3x scratch resistance), Center Stage cameras across lineup
- ✅Apple Intelligence AI Leadership: Privacy-first AI approach with iOS 26 "Liquid Glass" design, real-time translation, enhanced Siri - differentiating from Google/OpenAI
- ✅Services Growth Engine: $27.4B quarterly services revenue growing 13% Y/Y with double-digit App Store growth, expanding iCloud subscriptions, high-margin business
- ✅Global Market Leadership: 19% global smartphone market share (tied with Samsung), 2.2B active devices, 60-62% premium segment control ($400+ phones)
🐻 Why AAPL Bears Have Valid Concerns
- ⚠️Stock Market Reaction: -3.2% drop after iPhone 17 event to $226.84, typical "sell-the-news" pattern, investor expectations already priced in, muted excitement
- ⚠️Tariff & Cost Pressures: $1.1B quarterly tariff exposure under Trump administration, absorbed costs squeezing margins, potential for higher consumer prices
- ⚠️AI Competition Lag: Behind Google/OpenAI in AI capabilities, delayed Siri updates, missing AI-enhanced features that competitors already offer
- ⚠️China Market Risks: Geopolitical tensions, potential iPhone bans, Huawei competition, Taiwan Semiconductor dependency for M4 chips
- ⚠️High Valuation Concerns: P/E ratio of 32.36 well above historical average (low-to-mid 20s), premium valuation vulnerable to disappointment
This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Please consult with a financial advisor before making investment decisions.