Equity Research Cheat Sheets
Posts
C 3Q25 - Beats everywhere. Transformation is a long term agenda. Bull case $145.

C 3Q25 - Beats everywhere. Transformation is a long term agenda. Bull case $145.

Cheat Sheets presented by stocktwits

October 14, 2025

Citigroup Investment Report - Q3 2025 Crushes Across All Lines, But Transformation Drags On

CITIGROUP INC. (C)

🏦 Global Banking Turnaround | Rev +9% to $22.1B, Every Business Record, Adj ROTCE 9.7%

Q3 2025: Jane Fraser Delivers Beats Everywhere | Transformation Still Years Away

💰 Market Cap: $179B | 🏢 Employees: 229,000 | 🌍 Assets: $2.4T

👩‍💼 CEO Jane Fraser | 🎯 Transformation Mode | 💎 Equity: $205B

$99.49

📈 +$3.39 (+3.53%) Today

+20% YTD

Price Target Scenarios

18-Month Horizon (Mid-2027 Targets) - Based on Current Price $99.49

$145.00

Bull Case (+46%)

Transformation Complete

Consent Orders Lifted

📊 Valuation:

2027E EPS: $11.50 × 12.5x P/E = $145/share

🚀 What's Needed:

Consent orders LIFTED • Transformation delivers $2B saves • ROTCE 14-15% • Services +12% • Wealth explodes • IB +25% • Markets $24-26B • Expenses $50-51B • NII $92-94B • Multiple rerates to 12-13x

$110.00

Base Case (+11%)

Slow Progress

Market Inline

📊 Valuation:

2027E EPS: $9.50 × 11.5x P/E = $110/share

⚖️ What's Needed:

Transformation grinds forward • Consent orders progress • ROTCE 11-12% • Services +8-10% • IB +15% • Markets $22-23B • Expenses $52-53B • NII $88-90B • Credit stable • Wealth mid-teens • Book 0.95-1.0x

$65.00

Bear Case (-35%)

Asset Cap + Recession

Transformation Fails

📊 Valuation:

2027E EPS: $6.50 × 10x P/E = $65/share

🔻 What Could Go Wrong:

Asset cap imposed • More fines • Transformation stalls, costs $56-58B • Recession hits credit • Markets collapse $16-18B • IB -30% • Services stalls • Warren wins • ROTCE 6-7% • Book 0.7-0.8x • Multiple 8-9x

Bottom Line for Retail Investors

🎯

Crushed Everywhere

Adj EPS $2.24 vs $1.90 est (+18% beat!) • Net income $3.8B • Revenue $22.1B vs $21.1B est • Services RECORD +7% • Markets record Q3 +15% • Banking IB +17% • EVERY business record Q3 revenue • Adj ROTCE 9.7% • $5B buyback ($1B more than guided!)

🔥

Jane Fraser Magic

First woman to run Wall St bank delivering • Jane: "We have fundamentally changed the bank in recent years" • "Running businesses differently and capturing synergies between them" • "Added new senior leaders to complement excellent talent we already had" • "The best part is there is much more upside ahead"

⚠️

Transformation Progress

Jane: "Over 2/3 of programs at or close to target state" • "Particularly pleased with controls improvement" • But: Consent orders since 2020 • $7.4B spent • Fined $136M July 2024 • Warren pushing asset cap • Still years away

💀

ROTCE Reality Check

Adj ROTCE 9.7% • Lowered 2026 target to 10-11% • JPM at 20% • Analyst targets $102 = +6% • Trading 0.91x book = "show me" mode • Transformation years away

📊 Q3 2025: Beat Everything, Every Business Record, Jane Delivers

Adj EPS $2.24 Beat • Revenue $22.1B Beat • Services RECORD • Markets Record Q3 +15% • Banking IB +17% • Net Income $3.8B • Adj ROTCE 9.7% • $5B Buyback (+$1B vs Guidance) 💪

💰

$22.1B

Q3 2025 Revenue

+9% YoY

⚡

$5.4B

Services Revenue

AUC $30T (+30%)

🎯

$2.24

Adjusted EPS Q3

$1.86 Reported

📉

9.7%

Adj ROTCE (8% Rptd)

Target: 10-11% 2026

📞 Key Q3 2025 Earnings Call Highlights

🎊

Every Business = Record Q3

Jane: "Every business had record Q3 revenue and improved returns." Positive op leverage firm-wide. "The best part is there is much more upside ahead." EXECUTION.

👑

Services = Record + AUC $30T

Record quarter +7%. AUC grew 30% to nearly $30 TRILLION. Cross-border transactions + USD clearing up. Jane: "New client wins and share gains" demonstrate client confidence in navigating "very dynamic, global environment."

🚀

Banking IB Fees +17%

IB fees +17% across all products. Jane: "Tariff clarity + record equity prices fueled CEO confidence." Adding talent in tech, healthcare, consumer, sponsors. "Relationships will bear fruit over next 2-3 years."

💎

Markets Record + Wealth Wins

Markets record Q3 +15% despite low volatility. Prime balances +40%. Wealth +8% (Citi Gold + private bank). RECORD net new investment assets $18.6B. Client investment assets +14%. Blackrock partnership: $80B.

💳 USPB: Record $5.3B revenue. 12 straight quarters positive op leverage. ROTCE 14%+. Launched Strata Elite. New AA mid-tier card Q4.

🔄 Retail→Wealth: $4B deposits moved Q3. Improved investment penetration driving higher revenue.

📍 Jane: "Every business had record Q3 revenue." "We have fundamentally changed the bank." "Much more upside ahead."

🎯 Guidance: 2025 NII ex-markets 5.5% (raised from 4%). Revenue ~$84B. Expenses ~$53.4B.

💸 Capital: $6B+ returned Q3. $5B buyback ($1B MORE than guided). YTD: $8.75B of $20B program. Dividend 60¢. CET1 13.2% (100+ bps above requirement).

⚠️ ROTCE: Adj 9.7% improving but below peers. 2026 target 10-11%. Transformation ongoing but delivering results.

✅ Transformation: Jane: "Over 2/3 of programs at or close to target state." "Particularly pleased with improvement in controls through standardizing, automating, digitizing."

💎 Citi Token Services: Integrating with 24/7 clearing platform. Allows clients to send funds to third party banks real-time. "True interoperability across 250+ institutions."

💬 Critical Q&A Insights - Transformation Anxieties

🏦 Asset Cap: Jane: "Crystal clear - NO asset cap. No additional measures beyond July announcement."

💸 Expenses: Target $51-53B by 2026 from $53.8B now. Transformation costs continue. Medical +10%.

🎯 ROTCE: Lowered to 10-11% from 11-12%. Jane: "Waypoint not destination." Current 9.7% vs JPM 20%.

🇲🇽 Banamex: Fernando Chico Pardo buying 25% equity stake - "very significant step towards divestiture." Ready to IPO end 2025. Timing depends on markets.

🤖 AI: Nearly 180K colleagues in 83 countries using AI tools (7M times this year). Automated code reviews: 1M+, creating 100K hours weekly capacity. AI pilot for complex tasks launched.

🚀 Why C Bulls Are Right - Turnaround Is Real

🎯

Execution Machine

Beat on EVERYTHING Q3 • Services record • Banking +17% • Markets record Q3 • Wealth +8% • "Much more upside ahead" • Jane delivering

👑

Services = Unmatched Moat

#1 in cross-border banking • TTS + Securities Services = $5.4B record • AUC $30T • Growing share • Only bank with this global footprint • Unmatched moat

💎

Most Hated = Most Upside

Trading 0.91x book vs peers 1.5-2.0x • ROTCE 9.7% going to 14%+ = huge EPS growth • When consent orders lift = massive rerate • Most hated = most upside

🚀

IB Cycle + Digital Assets

IB fees +17% • Markets benefiting from volatility • Citi Token Services = future • Exploring stablecoin • First mover in tokenization • Jane: "America's economic engine is still humming"

🐻 Why C Bears Have Legitimate Fears

⚖️

Regulatory Nightmare Continues

Consent orders since 2020 • $7.4B spent, not done • Fined $136M July 2024 • Warren pushing ASSET CAP • Years away from resolution • Takes 9 days to open wealth account vs 3 industry

📉

ROTCE = Still Worst of Big Banks

Adj ROTCE 9.7% vs JPM 20%, BAC 12%, WFC 14% • Lowered 2026 target • Trading 0.91x book = market skeptical • Years away from peer returns

💸

Expense Story Never Ends

Target $51-53B by 2026 but at $53.8B now • Transformation costs continue • Medical +10% • Comp pressure • Tech investments ongoing • Sticky expenses

💀

Execution Risk Everywhere

Banamex IPO delayed • "Progress not linear" = more stumbles coming • If asset cap happens = disaster • One more regulatory misstep = big drop • Analyst targets only $102 = +6%

This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Please consult with a financial advisor before making investment decisions.