💰 Market Cap: $15.4B | 🏢 1.1K Employees | 🌍 North America-Focused (95% Revenue)

👨‍💼 CEO John Fieldly | 🎯 Total Energy Portfolio Strategy | 🇺🇸 Boca Raton, FL

$45.92

📉 -$13.64 (-22.9%) Post-Earnings

+108% YTD | Selloff on Q4 margin pressure, Alani transition complexity, 250+ distributor returns timing uncertainty

🚀 Needs:

Alani Nu PepsiCo rollout (Dec 1 start, Q1 2026 full ramp) adds 50K+ distribution points unlocking food service and club channels • Rockstar margin improvement begins H1 2026 through sourcing integration achieving Alani-style turnaround • Core CELSIUS brand accelerates to 20%+ growth as Live Fit Go campaign drives trial/repeat and October shows category-leading momentum • International expansion delivers $300M+ annual revenue by 2026 with Australia success model replicated in UK/Europe markets • Strategic Energy Captaincy with PepsiCo enables planogram control across 30K+ employees driving coordinated portfolio optimization • $50M+ cost synergies captured by Q1 2026 end from Alani integration plus freight savings (3% of sales target) as three-brand logistics optimize

⚖️ Needs:

Alani Nu December 1 PepsiCo transition creates Q4/Q1 inventory noise but phases in smoothly avoiding 2024-style destocking issues with improved coordination • Core CELSIUS sustains 13%+ scanner growth with October momentum ahead of category as Live Fit Go campaign builds and 2026 resets expand space • Rockstar stabilizes in H1 2026 post-optimization as new President of International scales European foundation built in Australia • Gross margins face Q4 pressure (scrap, freight, tariffs, returns from 250+ prior distributors) before re-expanding to 50%+ in Q1 2026 as integration normalizes • S&M spend elevated to 23-25% in Q4 for Live Fit Go completion then moderates as portfolio efficiency improves • Full-year 2026 revenue reaches $3.2B with adjusted EPS of $1.33 driven by normalized operations and synergy realization

⚠️ Risk:

Alani Nu December transition (different timing vs October 2022 Celsius rollout) hits year-end inventory management creating bigger disruption than 2022 Bang replacement • Returns from 250+ prior distributors arrive faster than PepsiCo network inventory build causing Q4/Q1 sales drag and margin compression beyond guidance • Core CELSIUS October momentum proves temporary as scanner growth decelerates back to single digits amid intensifying Monster/Red Bull competition • Rockstar turnaround stalls as management focuses on Alani integration, declining 10-15% annually and cannibalizing CELSIUS/Alani sales • Q4 "really noisy quarter" warning signals worse-than-expected freight, scrap, and promotional pressure compressing margins below 48% • Cash management activity and year-end customer behavior creates inventory whipsaw that persists into 2026 undermining growth visibility

💰

What Happened

Revenue $725.1M: Crushed estimates by $9M, up 173% with Alani Nu $332M (+99%), CELSIUS +44%, Rockstar $18M ($11M revenue + $7M other income due to GAAP accounting)

Adj EPS $0.42: Beat by 50% ($0.28 est) despite $247M distributor termination costs (PepsiCo funded, cash neutral) showing strong underlying profitability

Gross Margin 51.3%: Up from 46% prior year driven by lower promotional spend, favorable mix, scale benefits on raw materials, offset by tariffs and lower Alani/Rockstar margins

Portfolio $5B+ TTM Retail Sales: Combined brands represent 20.8% U.S. market share (doubled from 10% two years ago), growing 31% YoY vs 16% category growth

S&M 20% of Sales: Elevated investment in Live Fit Go campaign with guidance for 23-25% in Q4 to complete transition, G&A controlled at 6% ex-acquisition costs down from 9%

📈

Why It Matters

Strategic Energy Captain Role: CELH now leads PepsiCo's entire U.S. energy portfolio with control over planograms, SKU prioritization, promotional timing across 30K PepsiCo employees

Distribution Moat Widens: Alani Nu Dec 1 rollout into PepsiCo system adds massive foodservice/club access, phased approach through Q1 2026 avoids 2024 destocking repeat

Alani Nu Proving Ground: Witches Brew LTO doubled prior year sales, was "talk of NACS show" with retailers, driving core SKU velocity growth alongside incrementality

CELSIUS October Momentum: After slow Q1/Q2, October scanner data shows brand growing ahead of category as Live Fit Go campaign drives trial/repeat heading into 2026 resets

Balance Sheet Strength: Post-quarter reduced debt by $200M and cut interest rate 75bps, total debt now $700M saving $20M annually starting 2026

🎯

What's Next

Q4 "Really Noisy Quarter": Management transparent on margin pressure from scrap/freight/tariffs, returns from 250+ distributors, cash management timing before Q1 2026 re-expansion

Alani PepsiCo Rollout: December 1 start with phased approach through Q1 (different from Oct 2022 Celsius Bang replacement), inventory builds across network for 2026 resets

Margin Recovery Path: Q4 pressure then gross margin re-expansion Q1 2026 as Alani synergies complete (most by Q1 end), Rockstar margins improve H1 2026, freight optimization ongoing

Innovation Pipeline: Winter Wonderland launching now (smaller than Witches Brew), strong 2026 LTO lineup across portfolio, Spritz 5 seeing strong consumer response

International Scaling: New President of International hired, Australia model (7-Eleven success) replicating to UK/Europe, foundation built with university ambassadors and retail partnerships

💡

Bottom Line for Retail Investors

CELH crushed Q3 earnings with revenue +173% and EPS beating by 50%, but the stock has collapsed 23% to $45.92 as investors sold off on management's warnings about a "really noisy" Q4 ahead. The concerns are real: December 1 Alani rollout into PepsiCo is more complex than the 2022 Celsius transition (year-end timing vs mid-quarter, phased approach vs immediate, managing returns from 250+ distributors), Q4 margins face pressure from scrap/freight/tariffs before Q1 2026 re-expansion, and the wide gap between 44% CELSIUS revenue growth and 13% scanner growth raises questions about inventory timing benefits. The bull case hinges on whether management can execute the Alani transition smoothly, whether October scanner momentum (CELSIUS ahead of category) proves sustainable, and whether the Strategic Energy Captain role with PepsiCo planogram control creates the distribution moat bulls believe it does. At $45.92 (35x 2026 consensus EPS of $1.33), you're betting that Q4 is just transition noise and margins re-expand as guided - but if the Alani rollout stumbles or CELSIUS growth doesn't accelerate in 2026 resets, there's more downside. The 23% selloff could be an overreaction to short-term execution risk, or it could be the market correctly pricing in that juggling three major energy brands during a complex distribution transition is harder than management let on. Time will tell.

🚀

Alani Nu Is Unstoppable

$332M Quarterly Revenue: Alani Nu up 99% YoY with Witches Brew doubling prior year, "talk of NACS show" proving LTO strategy drives core velocity growth

Female/Gen Z Domination: Performing exceptionally in convenience channel, incremental to category by driving new female consumption with unique flavor profiles like Sherbet Swirl

PepsiCo Distribution Dec 1: Phased rollout through Q1 2026 adds 50K+ points in foodservice/club, Strategic Energy Captain role ensures optimal planogram placement vs 2022 rush

Retailer Excitement Post-NACS: Coming out of trade show, food/mass retailers highlighting Alani as large percentage of energy sales, driving unique channel-specific programs for 2026

🤝

PepsiCo Partnership Deepening

Strategic Energy Captain: Unprecedented role managing CELSIUS, Alani Nu, Rockstar for PepsiCo in North America with direct control over planograms, SKU priority, promotional alignment

30K PepsiCo Employee Rally: John Fieldly presented to 30K PepsiCo employees at national town hall showcasing total portfolio, inspiring distribution force to execute 2026 expansion

Enhanced Coordination vs 2022: Teams "much more tightly connected" with Eric (longtime Pepsi veteran) coordinating, learnings from Celsius transition applied to Alani rollout

Board Representation Added: PepsiCo nominating additional director with 11% stake increase signals long-term strategic alignment and confidence in CELH leadership

💪

Core CELSIUS Brand Resilience

+44% Revenue Growth: Core brand beat comps despite Q1/Q2 softness, showing underlying health with favorable product mix driving distribution point increases

October Ahead of Category: After rallying from slow start, October scanner data shows CELSIUS growing faster than energy category with Live Fit Go campaign driving trial/repeat success

2026 Reset Positioning: Excitement from Live Fit Go campaign setting up "really nicely" for retail resets, expanding space across Walmart (gained 2+ share points YoY), CVS, Walgreens end caps

Spritz 5 LTO Success: First CELSIUS limited-time offering launched in October showing strong consumer response in U.S./Canada, proving LTO playbook extends beyond Alani Nu

🌍

International White Space Opportunity

First President of International: Garrett Quigley hired to scale foundation built in Sweden/Finland/Australia/UK/Ireland/New Zealand/France/Benelux with strategic 2026 investments

Australia Success Model: 7-Eleven partnership delivering exceptional results, becoming blueprint for replication in other markets positioning strongly for 2026 expansion

University Ambassador Rollout: 200+ student ambassadors at Celsius University Summit plus international program launches building grassroots brand advocacy in new markets

95% North America Today: Massive white space with global health/wellness trends ("world is one click away"), retailers excited as CELSIUS builds local sales/marketing orgs in each region

⚠️

Integration Execution Risk

December Timing vs October 2022: Alani rollout during year-end (low CPG activity period) vs Celsius mid-quarter, phased approach vs immediate Bang replacement creates different dynamics

250+ Distributor Wind-Down: Managing returns and inventory reduction from massive prior DSD network while building PepsiCo inventory simultaneously - unprecedented complexity acknowledged by CFO

Q4 "Really Noisy Quarter": Management repeatedly cautioning on unpredictability, refusing to forecast beyond "expect noise," signals potential for negative surprises on returns/timing

Reset Timing Uncertainty: Unlike 2022 immediate shelf space fill, AOM account resets and OTS programs reload timing creates phased uncertainty that could extend disruption into Q1

📉

Core Brand Market Share Pressure

13% vs 44% Growth Gap: Wide variance between scanner (13%) and reported revenue (44%) shows inventory timing benefits masking underlying deceleration despite October improvement

Q1/Q2 Softness Precedent: Core CELSIUS "started off slow" not keeping pace with category before Q3 rally, proving brand momentum is fragile and easily disrupted by competitive activity

Promotional Activity Increasing: Management noting higher promo spend in quarter, suggesting need for more aggressive tactics to maintain shelf space as Monster counters with functional launches

ACV/TDP Saturation: Compared to Alani's white space opportunity, CELSIUS already highly penetrated in PepsiCo system limits further distribution gains and forces organic velocity improvement

💸

Margin Compression Concerns

Q4 Margin Pressure Confirmed: CFO explicitly guiding to "more pressure on gross margins in Q4" from scrap/freight/tariffs before Q1 re-expansion - specific downside warning is rare

Tariff Escalation: "Larger" tariff impact in Q4 after Q2/Q3 pressure, with management not hedging (only forward buys) leaving exposure to commodity/input cost volatility

S&M Spike to 25%: Sales & Marketing guided to 23-25% in Q4 (up from 20% Q3) for Live Fit Go completion, suggesting operating leverage deteriorating near-term

Alani/Rockstar Dilution: Both brands carry higher freight costs (ahead of CELSIUS's ~3% target), integration timeline for Rockstar margin improvement pushed to H1 2026 reducing Q4/Q1 profitability

🎯

Rockstar Turnaround Uncertainty

$18M Q3 Contribution Only: Rockstar generated just $11M revenue + $7M other income in first month, suggesting run-rate well below expectations for iconic brand with PepsiCo support

Medium-Term Stabilization Goal: Management explicitly stating "medium-term goal of stabilizing brand" (not growth) signals low confidence in near-term turnaround prospects

Portfolio Optimization Required: Vague language about "optimizing product assortment" and "recapturing the magic" suggests brand identity crisis and lack of clear strategic roadmap

PepsiCo Couldn't Fix It: If global beverage giant with unlimited resources failed to revitalize Rockstar domestically, unclear why CELH succeeds while simultaneously integrating Alani and growing CELSIUS