💰 Market Cap: $7.3B | 🏢 43 Employees | 🌍 Texas Focus (3.2 GW Pipeline)

👨‍💼 CEO Tyler Page | 🎯 AI Hyperscaler First Strategy | 🇺🇸 New York, NY HQ

$21.95

📈 +$3.30 (+17.7%) Today

+1,080% from 52-week low ($1.86) | Nov 3, 2025

🚀 Needs:

AWS deal delivers on time with August 2026 rent commencement generating ~$360M annually • Colchis 1-GW site secures additional Tier-1 hyperscaler contracts at premium rates • Bitcoin rallies above $130K sustaining mining margins at 60%+ • Additional pipeline converts with 2+ new hyperscaler deals totaling 500+ MW • Multiple expansion to 15x+ revenue as pure-play AI infrastructure provider

⚖️ Needs:

AWS and Fluidstack/Google deals execute as planned with minor delays (Q1 2027) • Bitcoin stabilizes in $100K-$120K range maintaining current mining economics • Colchis development progresses but secures lease at standard rather than premium pricing • 1-2 additional deals in pipeline convert to contracts by mid-2026 • Company maintains 60/40 AI-to-mining revenue mix transitioning gradually

⚠️ Risk:

Construction delays push AWS rent commencement to 2027 reducing near-term cash flow • Bitcoin crashes below $80K crushing mining margins and forcing unprofitable operations • $1.3B convertible notes dilute shareholders at unfavorable terms if construction costs overrun • ERCOT delays or denies Colchis interconnection killing the 1-GW development • AI infrastructure bubble deflates as hyperscalers slow capex in recession scenario • Power costs spike in Texas due to grid strain eroding competitive positioning

💰

What Happened

Revenue: $72M, up 65% QoQ from $44M in Q2 2025 (crushed estimates)

Adj EPS: $0.10 vs $0.03 consensus, beating by 233% - "strong execution" per CFO Greg Mumford

Bitcoin Production: 629 BTC mined (56% Odessa, 36% Black Pearl, 9% JV sites) at $114,400/BTC avg

Hashrate Growth: 23.6 EH/s self-mining (up 40% from 16.8 EH/s Q2), fleet efficiency 19.2 J/TH

Net Loss Improvement: Only $3M loss vs $46M loss Q2 2025 - 93% reduction in GAAP losses

📈

Why It Matters

AWS Validation: CEO Tyler Page: "In my 25-year professional career, I have never witnessed anything close to what is going on in the market right now"

Revenue Visibility: $8.5B contracted AI revenue ($5.5B AWS + $3B Fluidstack/Google) provides unprecedented visibility

Strategic Transformation: "Most exciting earnings update in our company's history" - from pure miner to AI infrastructure leader

Hyperscaler Urgency: Tyler Page: "Every discussion starts with 'We want megawatts available right now'" - AI demand blindsided cloud providers

Portfolio Mix: 67% AI/HPC capacity vs 33% Bitcoin mining - diversified revenue model de-risks volatility

🎯

What's Next

Q4 2026 AWS Launch: 300 MW at Black Pearl site in two phases (July & Oct 2026), rent starts August 2026 - majority debt financed

Colchis Development: 1-GW West Texas site with 95% CIFR ownership, AEP interconnect, energization 2028 (pending ERCOT)

Fluidstack Delivery: 168 MW AI capacity for Google by Sept 2026 (~$3B, $1.4B Google backstop) - construction on track

Mining Expansion: Stingray 100 MW (Q4 2026), Revely 70 MW (Q2 2027), Black Pearl Phase II underway

Pipeline Momentum: Tyler Page: "We are just getting started" and "Deals beget deals" with 3.2 GW active discussions

💡

Bottom Line for Retail Investors

Cipher Mining just went from "risky Bitcoin miner" to "AI infrastructure powerhouse" in the most transformative quarter in company history. CEO Tyler Page's bombshell comment says it all: "In my 25-year professional career, I have never witnessed anything close to what is going on in the market right now." The $5.5B AWS deal and $3B Google-backed Fluidstack contract give CIFR $8.5B in locked-in revenue—more than their entire $7.3B market cap! All-in electricity costs rose to $34,189/BTC (up 25% QoQ) but 23.6 EH/s hashrate and 629 BTC mined kept mining profitable. The real story: hyperscalers are desperate for power NOW, and Cipher has it in Texas. With 95% ownership in the massive 1-GW Colchis site, 3.2 GW pipeline, and management saying "deals beget deals" and "we're just getting started," this is the pivot that makes CIFR investable. New CFO Greg Mumford confirmed no further equity needed for current projects—the $1.2B convertible raise covers everything. For retail investors: stock surged 18% to $21.95 on the news, and Wall Street is taking notice. If they execute on time (AWS rent August 2026), this could still reach $30-40 by late 2026 as contracted revenue ramps.

🏢

Tier-1 Hyperscaler Validation

CEO Quote: "In my 25-year career, I have never witnessed anything close to what is going on right now"

Google Backing: $1.4B Google guarantee on Fluidstack deal eliminates counterparty risk entirely

Contract Value: $5.5B AWS + $3B Fluidstack = $8.5B total exceeds $7.3B market cap by 16%

No Dilution: CFO Greg Mumford confirmed "no further equity fundraising" needed for current AWS/Fluidstack projects

⚡

Texas Power Advantage

Strategic Location: 3.2 GW pipeline in ERCOT where Tyler Page notes hyperscalers say "We want megawatts available right now"

Cost Leadership: 2.7¢/kWh weighted avg power costs drives profitability despite $34,189 all-in cost/BTC (up 25% QoQ)

AEP Partnership: 1-GW Direct Connect Agreement secured for Colchis with dual interconnection facility

Proven Execution: Black Pearl Phase I energized in 16 months, now 36% of production with 23.6 EH/s total hashrate

💎

Dual Revenue Model Resilience

Bitcoin Operations: 629 BTC mined Q3 with Odessa (56%), Black Pearl (36%), JV sites (9%) generating $72M revenue

Strategic Shift: 67% of gross capacity now AI/HPC vs 33% Bitcoin; CFO: "No further investment in mining side of business"

Portfolio Flexibility: Management retains 56 MW at Barber Lake for additional HPC deals or own compute deployment

Financial Turnaround: $3M net loss Q3 vs $46M loss Q2 = 93% reduction; Adj earnings $41M up 34% QoQ

🚀

Massive Growth Runway

Colchis Upside: 95% ownership in 1-GW site worth $10B+ at full lease rates - Tyler Page: "Deals beget deals"

Pipeline Scale: 3.2 GW capacity with sites east of current portfolio "closer to major metropolitan areas"

Revenue Trajectory: $72M Q3 → $500M+ run-rate late 2026 as AWS (Aug '26) and Fluidstack (Oct '26) commence

Management Confidence: "We are just getting started" and "most exciting earnings update in company history" - Tyler Page

🏗️

Execution and Dilution Risk

Construction Complexity: Building 300 MW AWS facility by Q4 2026 aggressive but management says "on track" for all milestones

Convertible Overhang: $1.2B in 0% convertible notes (not $1.3B) could dilute 15-20% but CFO says covers all construction

Leadership Transition: New CFO Greg Mumford replaced retiring Ed Farrell mid-quarter - integration risk during critical phase

Capital Requirements: Tyler Page confirmed debt financing for "majority of AWS construction costs" to minimize dilution

📉

Bitcoin Price Dependency

Mining Exposure: Generated $72M Q3 revenue entirely from Bitcoin - all-in cost rose to $34,189/BTC (up 25% QoQ)

Transition Gap: 9-10 months until AWS rent (Aug 2026) and 11-12 months until Fluidstack (Oct 2026) revenue begins

Margin Compression: Network hashrate growth drove cost increase despite 19.2 J/TH fleet efficiency improvement

Market Sentiment: Still trades with 2.89 beta to crypto - any Bitcoin crash below $90K makes mining unprofitable

🌩️

Texas Power Grid Vulnerability

ERCOT Risk: Colchis 1-GW interconnection "proceeding in parallel with ERCOT's final review" - approval not guaranteed

Grid Dependency: All 3.2 GW pipeline and current operations in Texas ERCOT grid creates concentration risk

Power Cost Spikes: Weighted avg 2.7¢/kWh could spike if AI demand saturates Texas grid capacity

Development Timeline: Colchis 2028 target is 3+ years away - execution risk and market conditions could change dramatically

🥶

AI Infrastructure Bubble Risk

Hyperscaler Urgency: Tyler Page: "AI demand has snuck up on everyone" and "discussions start with 'We want megawatts NOW'"

Competition Intensifying: Every Bitcoin miner pivoting to AI creates supply response - first-mover advantage is temporary

Technology Obsolescence: AWS deal includes both air and liquid cooling but next-gen requirements could change in 15 years

Valuation Risk: Trading at AI multiples (10x EV/Revenue) while 100% revenue still Bitcoin mining - disconnect if pivot fails