CRM - Dreamforce and GOOG recap- Is CRM AI? Bull case $385. Bear case $185

Cheat Sheets

October 16, 2025

Salesforce Mid-Quarter Investment Report - Oct 2025 | Agentforce 360 Launch, $15B SF Investment, FY30 $60B+ Target

SALESFORCE INC (CRM)

🤖 Agentforce 360 Launch • $15B SF Investment • OpenAI/Anthropic/Google Partners • FY30: $60B+ Rev, ~40% Margins

Oct 14-16 Dreamforce: Google Gemini Added Today! • 12K Customers • Agent Script Beta Nov • Reddit 46% Deflection | All 3 Major AI Partners

💰 Market Cap: $228B | 🏢 Employees: 76K | 🌍 Global Reach: 150+ Countries | Founded: 1999
👨‍💼 CEO Marc Benioff | 🎯 #1 CRM Platform | 💎 Liquidity: $10.5B | Operating Cash Flow: $8.5B YTD
$236.58
📈 +$14.87 (+6.7%) This Week
+28.9% YTD (vs S&P +13.4%)
Price Target Scenarios

18-Month Outlook (Mid-2027) - Today's Price: $236.58

$385.00
Bull Case (+63%)
If Everything Goes Right
🚀 What needs to happen:
Agentforce becomes the AI agent platform of choice • Data Cloud ARR reaches $3B+ by 2027 • Enterprise adoption accelerates to 25K+ customers • Margins expand to 40% as promised by FY30 • AI generates 20%+ of revenue • OpenAI/Anthropic partnerships drive massive demand • Rule of 50 achieved earlier than expected
$332.00
Base Case (+40%)
Business as Usual
⚖️ What needs to happen:
10%+ revenue CAGR through FY30 as guided • Agentforce adoption grows steadily to 20K customers • Data Cloud maintains 100%+ growth trajectory • Operating margins expand 150bps annually toward 40% • Core products (Sales, Service) maintain high single-digit growth • AI becomes 10-15% of revenue by 2027
$185.00
Bear Case (-22%)
If Things Go Wrong
🔻 What could go wrong:
Agentforce fails to gain traction • Enterprise AI spending slows dramatically • Competition from Microsoft/ServiceNow intensifies • Revenue growth drops to mid-single digits • Tableau and MuleSoft continue to underperform • Economic recession crushes enterprise software spending • Multiple compression as AI hype fades • Margin targets prove unrealistic
The TL;DR for Investors
🎯
Dreamforce 2025 Was HUGE
Agentforce 360 launched Oct 13-16 with major announcements. $15B San Francisco investment over 5 years. OpenAI (ChatGPT) and Anthropic (Claude) deep integrations. FY30 targets: $60B+ revenue with ~40% margins (Rule of 50!). Stock popped 5% after-hours on guidance. 50K attendees, $130M for SF economy.
🤖
Agentforce Momentum Is Real
12,000 customers now, fastest product launch in company history. Agent Script (beta Nov) lets you program agents with "if/then" logic. New Agentforce Builder for one-stop creation. Slack becoming "agentic OS" with all Salesforce apps inside. PepsiCo rolling to 1.5M stores, Williams-Sonoma live on websites. This isn't vaporware.
📊
The AI Platform War Is ON
Salesforce just announced partnerships with ALL three major AI leaders in 72 hours. OpenAI (Oct 14), Anthropic (Oct 14), Google Gemini (TODAY Oct 16). No other company has this model flexibility. ChatGPT's 800M users access Salesforce. Claude for regulated industries. Gemini for multimodal AI. $8B Informatica acquisition strengthens data moat. Microsoft/ServiceNow/Oracle can't match this.
⚠️
The Concerns Remain
Core revenue growth still only 8%, decelerating trend. Next earnings Dec 9 - consensus expects similar 8-9% growth. Benioff cut support staff from 9,000 to 5,000 using AI - good for margins, bad optics for "AI replaces jobs" narrative. MIT says 95% of AI pilots fail. Will enterprises actually pay up for agents at scale?

📊 Mid-Quarter Update - October 2025

Dreamforce 2025 Just Happened • Agentforce 360 Launch • $15B SF Investment • OpenAI/Anthropic Partnerships • FY30 Targets Unveiled 💪

💰
$15B
SF Investment
Over 5 Years
⚡
$60B+
FY30 Target
From $38B Today
🎯
~40%
FY30 Op Margin
From 33% Today
🚀
12,000
Agentforce 360
Customers Now

📞 What's Happening NOW (Oct 14-16, 2025 - Dreamforce Week)

🎊 Agentforce 360 Goes Live
Unveiled Oct 13 at Dreamforce - the "Agentic Enterprise" platform combining AI agents, Data 360, Customer 360 apps, and Slack. New features: Agent Script (beta Nov), Agentforce Builder, voice capabilities, hybrid reasoning. Reddit: 46% case deflection. Adecco: 51% after-hours automation.
🚨 $15B San Francisco Investment
Announced Oct 13 - $15B over 5 years to reinforce SF as "world's AI capital." New AI Incubator Hub on campus. Dreamforce bringing 50K attendees, $130M local revenue, 35K jobs. Plus $100M to UCSF Children's Hospital, $39M for AI education in SF/Oakland schools.
💎 OpenAI, Anthropic & Google Partnerships
Oct 14-16 - THREE major AI partnerships! OpenAI ChatGPT (800M+ users) integration. Anthropic Claude for regulated industries. TODAY (Oct 16): Google Gemini added to Atlas Reasoning Engine - hybrid reasoning, multimodal AI (images/audio/video). Gemini Enterprise in Slack Real-Time Search API. Agentforce in Google Workspace. Full model choice flexibility.
🔬 FY30 Targets Revealed
Oct 15 Analyst Day - $60B+ revenue by FY30 (10%+ CAGR from $38B), ~40% operating margins (150bps annual expansion). Stock jumped 5% in after-hours. "Rule of 50" confirmed. Excludes pending $8B Informatica acquisition closing Q4 FY25 or Q1 FY27.

📍 Marc Benioff (Oct 14 Keynote): "We're entering the age of the Agentic Enterprise where AI elevates human potential like never before. Agentforce has grown faster than any product we've launched. 1.8M Salesforce Help conversations already powered by Agentforce."

🎯 Customer Momentum: Williams-Sonoma deploying across brand websites. PepsiCo rolled out to 1.5M stores globally, plans "agent first" by end of 2026. Pandora: "We got the cellophane off in January and it worked out of the box."

💳 Slack as Agentic OS: New Slackbot with personalized AI agent. Salesforce apps (Sales, Service, IT, HR) surfacing in Slack starting now. Enterprise Search coming with Gmail, Outlook, Dropbox connectors in early 2026. "Slack becomes the agentic operating system." Gemini Enterprise now integrated with Slack Real-Time Search API (announced today Oct 16).

⚠️ Model Choice Strategy: In just 3 days (Oct 14-16), Salesforce announced partnerships with ALL three leading AI companies: OpenAI (Oct 14), Anthropic (Oct 14), Google (Oct 16 TODAY). Atlas Reasoning Engine now supports Gemini models for multimodal AI (images/audio/video), 2M token context windows, and hybrid reasoning. Salesforce running on Google Cloud infrastructure. This "model flexibility" differentiates from competitors locked into single providers.

💬 What's Next & Key Catalysts

🎯 Next Earnings: Dec 9, 2025 (Q3 FY26): Market will scrutinize if Agentforce 360 momentum translates to revenue acceleration. Analyst consensus: $10.26B revenue (+8.7% YoY), $2.85 EPS. Key metric to watch: Data Cloud & AI ARR progression from $900M.

💸 Agentforce Adoption Trajectory: Currently 12,000 customers total. Bulls want to see 5,000+ net new adds per quarter (similar to Q4 FY25's 5,000). Agent Script (beta Nov) and Agentforce Builder (beta Nov) could accelerate adoption curve dramatically. Usage data on 1.8M+ conversations critical.

📊 Informatica Acquisition: $8B deal announced May 2025, closing expected Q4 FY25 or Q1 FY27. Will immediately boost Data Cloud capabilities and competitive position. Integration risk exists but data management synergies are obvious. FY30 $60B+ target EXCLUDES Informatica impact.

💰 Competition Heating Up: ServiceNow acquired Moveworks ($2.85B) for AI agents in Oct 2025. Microsoft Copilot has 800M+ Office install base. Oracle, HubSpot, Zoho all launching competing products. Salesforce needs to prove it's winning the AI agent platform war. Dreamforce customer testimonials help but need hard revenue data.

🚀 Bull Case
👑
Agentforce = iPhone Moment for Enterprise
Salesforce could own the AI agent platform layer like iPhone owns mobile. Already 12,000 customers, growing faster than any previous product launch. Partners like OpenAI, Anthropic, and Microsoft integrating deeply. "Agentic Enterprise" isn't marketing - it's a genuine paradigm shift where AI agents become the primary interface for business workflows.
💎
Data Cloud = Trillion-Dollar Moat
$900M ARR growing 120% YoY. Every AI agent needs unified, clean data. Salesforce already has customer data for millions of companies. Data Cloud becomes the foundation for ALL enterprise AI - not just Salesforce products. Could reach $5B+ ARR by 2028. This is the real competitive moat nobody else can replicate.
✈️
Margin Expansion is Real
33.1% operating margin, up 220bps YoY. Targeting 40% by FY30 with 150bps annual expansion. This isn't cost-cutting - it's operating leverage from platform investments finally paying off. AI products have better gross margins than legacy products. As revenue mix shifts to AI, margins naturally expand. Rule of 50 (10% growth + 40% margins) is achievable.
🚀
Model Flexibility = Unbeatable Advantage
In 72 hours (Oct 14-16), Salesforce announced ALL three major AI partnerships: OpenAI, Anthropic, Google Gemini. No competitor offers this flexibility. Customers choose best model for their use case: GPT for general tasks, Claude for regulated industries, Gemini for multimodal (images/video). Plus Salesforce owns Sales, Service, Marketing, Commerce, Slack, Tableau - the complete stack. This "Switzerland strategy" on AI models + platform ownership = insurmountable moat.
🐻 Bear Case
📉
Growth Deceleration Continues
Revenue growth slowed from 11% to 8% YoY. Q1 FY26 guidance suggests ~7% growth. Tableau and MuleSoft license revenue facing headwinds. Professional services drag persists. International markets (especially EMEA) slowing. Bears argue Agentforce won't move the needle fast enough to offset core CRM maturity. Growth floor might be mid-single digits by FY27.
💸
AI ROI Skepticism
MIT study found 95% of enterprise AI pilots fail before production. Agentforce pricing ($2 per conversation) adds up fast at scale. Many customers still struggling with data readiness. Real question: do companies NEED AI agents or is this just expensive automation? If recession hits, Agentforce could be first budget line cut as "experimental."
⚠️
Competition Intensifying
Microsoft Copilot has 800M+ Office users to monetize. ServiceNow acquired Moveworks for $2.85B, directly competing with Agentforce. HubSpot, Zoho eating SMB market. Oracle offering AI at lower cost. Google Workspace adding agents. Salesforce premium pricing (30% market share despite being leader) vulnerable if competitors offer "good enough" AI at 50% discount.
🎯
Valuation at 22x Forward Earnings
Trading at 22x P/E with 8% growth isn't cheap. Some analysts see downside to $220-240 range. If Agentforce adoption disappoints or economy weakens, multiple could compress to 16-18x (more typical for mature software). That implies 25-30% downside from current levels. Stock already up 29% YTD - much of Agentforce optimism already priced in.

This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Please consult with a financial advisor before making investment decisions.