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- CRWV - Saddle up META. Bull case up to $220
CRWV - Saddle up META. Bull case up to $220
Cheat Sheets presented by stocktwits
COREWEAVE (CRWV)
🚀💻 AI Infrastructure Pioneer | GPU Cloud Leader | Nvidia-Backed
META $14.2B Deal Announced | OpenAI $22.4B Total Contract | Nvidia GB300 Systems
💰 Market Cap: $60.0B | 🏢 Founded: 2017 | 🔌 Data Centers: US & Europe
👨💼 CEO Michael Intrator | 🎯 AI Hyperscaler™ | 💾 GPU-First Cloud
$136.71
📈 +$14.19 (+11.58%) Today
Current Price
Price Target Scenarios
18-Month Horizon (Q1 2027 Targets)
$220.00
Bull Case (+56%)
AI Infrastructure King
Hyperscaler Dominance
📊 Valuation Calculation:
• 2027E Revenue: $14.0B × P/S: 15.7x = $220.00
🚀 Key Assumptions:
META deal expands to full $14.2B+ through 2032 • OpenAI contract grows beyond $22.4B baseline • Microsoft diversification accelerates • New hyperscaler partnerships (Amazon, Google) • GAAP profitability achieved by late 2026 • Nvidia GB300/GB400 exclusive access maintained • Capacity constraints ease with new data centers • Revenue surpasses $12B by 2027
$165.00
Base Case (+17%)
Steady Execution
Growth Leader
📊 Valuation Calculation:
• 2027E Revenue: $11.5B × P/S: 14.3x = $165.00
⚖️ Key Assumptions:
META contract delivers ~$10B through 2031 • OpenAI remains steady at contracted levels • Customer concentration improves moderately • Q2 2025 growth trajectory maintains (200%+ YoY) • Operating margins expand to 18-20% by 2027 • Debt refinanced at lower rates • Capacity buildout on schedule • Customer diversification progresses
$75.00
Bear Case (-47%)
AI Demand Slowdown
Competition Intensifies
📊 Valuation Calculation:
• 2027E Revenue: $7.5B × P/S: 10.0x = $75.00
🔻 Key Assumptions:
AI spending boom peaks and reverses • Microsoft/hyperscalers build in-house capacity • Customer contracts not renewed at expiration • GPU oversupply drives pricing pressure • Debt burden becomes unsustainable ($11B+) • Operating losses persist longer than expected • New entrants flood AI infrastructure market • Core Scientific acquisition fails to deliver synergies
Bottom Line for Retail Investors
🚀
Explosive Growth Story
Q2 revenue tripled YoY to $1.21B, $30.1B+ backlog (6x annualized revenue), 214% YTD stock performance, unprecedented AI infrastructure demand, Nvidia-backed with exclusive GPU access
🤝
Blue-Chip Partnerships
META $14.2B deal (just announced), OpenAI $22.4B total contract, Microsoft 71% of Q2 revenue, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley customers, Nvidia strategic investor
💎
Competitive Moat
GPU-first bare metal infrastructure, purpose-built for AI workloads, faster time-to-market vs. hyperscalers, Nvidia GB300 early access, multi-year take-or-pay contracts securing revenue
⚠️
High-Risk Profile
$11B debt burden, GAAP losses continue ($291M in Q2), extreme customer concentration risk, capital-intensive business model, competition from hyperscaler partners, IPO lockup expiration concerns
📊 META Deal "Game-Changing Partnership" Announcement
$14.2B Contract Through 2031, Nvidia GB300 Access, Stock Surges 11.6%+, Follows $6.5B OpenAI Expansion Days Earlier
💰
$14.2B
META Deal Value
Through Dec 2031
🚀
+11.58%
Stock Surge Today
$136.71 Close
🔧
GB300
Nvidia Latest GPUs
72 Blackwell Chips
📈
$22.4B
OpenAI Total Contract
Expanded Sept 25
📞 Key META Deal Announcement Highlights
🎯
Customer Diversification Win
META deal reduces Microsoft concentration from 71% of Q2 revenue, "They loved our infrastructure in earlier contracts and came back for more" - CEO Intrator, expands committed contract revenue significantly
💼
Deal Spree Accelerating
$6.5B OpenAI expansion announced Sept 25 (bringing total to $22.4B), $14.2B META deal Sept 30, demonstrating CoreWeave as go-to AI infrastructure provider for hyperscale needs
🔬
META's AI Ambitions
META building Hyperion supercluster covering "significant part of Manhattan footprint", $66-72B capex guidance for 2025, 2026 expense growth to accelerate, "industry-leading compute per researcher" target
📊
Analyst Reactions Bullish
Wells Fargo price target $170 (+20%), Melius upgraded to Buy with $165 target, JMP upgraded to Outperform $180 target, "too big to ignore" narrative gaining traction on Wall Street
📍 CEO Commentary: "They loved our infrastructure in earlier contracts and came back for more. This is clearly a step in the right direction for diversification" - Michael Intrator
🎯 Strategic Timing: Deal comes as META accelerates AI infrastructure buildout for "Meta Superintelligence Labs", partnership provides access to cutting-edge Nvidia GB300 systems with 72 Blackwell GPUs per rack
🤝 Partnership Expansion Option: Agreement includes option for META to materially expand commitment through 2032 for additional cloud computing capacity, demonstrating long-term partnership potential
🔮 Market Context: Deal reflects "limitless" AI demand environment, Citi forecasts $2.8T in AI capex 2025-2029, CoreWeave positioned as critical enabler for Big Tech AI ambitions
🚀 Why CRWV Bulls Are Right
⚡
Hypergrowth Revenue Trajectory
Q2 2025 revenue tripled to $1.21B (+207% YoY), FY2025 guidance $5.15-5.35B (+174% YoY), capacity-constrained with demand far exceeding supply, $30.1B backlog equals 6x annualized revenue providing multi-year visibility
🎯
Blue-Chip Customer Portfolio
META $14.2B deal validates infrastructure quality, OpenAI $22.4B total partnership, Microsoft 71% of Q2 revenue, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley now customers, diversification accelerating rapidly
💎
Nvidia Strategic Alliance
Nvidia investor and partner with exclusive early access to GB300/GB400 systems, $6.3B Nvidia agreement to purchase unused capacity through 2032 de-risks utilization, first in line for next-gen GPUs
🏗️
Purpose-Built Differentiation & Expansion
GPU-first bare metal infrastructure optimized for AI workloads, faster deployment than hyperscalers building in-house, 250MW New Jersey facility delivering 2026, UK £1.5B investment, CoreWeave Ventures funding AI startups
🐻 Why CRWV Bears Have Valid Concerns
💸
Unprofitable & Debt-Heavy
$291M Q2 GAAP net loss despite revenue growth, negative 28.83% profit margin, $11.1B debt at high interest rates, $267M quarterly interest expense alone, path to GAAP profitability unclear, negative free cash flow persists
🎯
Extreme Customer Concentration
Microsoft represented 71% of Q2 revenue and 62% of 2024 revenue, despite META/OpenAI deals concentration remains massive risk, if Microsoft builds in-house capacity business model threatened, competing with own customers
📉
Valuation & Lockup Risks
Trading at ~19x trailing revenue ($60B market cap), IPO lockup expiration creates insider selling pressure, stock down 37% from peaks before recent surge, volatile trading with 19% expected earnings move, premium valuation assumes flawless execution
⚠️
Business Model Sustainability Questions
Capital-intensive model requires continuous massive capex ($3.2B+ quarterly), GPU depreciation pressures margins, collateralized GPU financing creates asset risk, hyperscalers may commoditize AI infrastructure over time, AI demand sustainability uncertain
This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Please consult with a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
