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- DDOG 3Q25 - Stock up big on a beat and raise everything quarter. Bull case $245 Bear case $145
DDOG 3Q25 - Stock up big on a beat and raise everything quarter. Bull case $245 Bear case $145
Cheat Sheets
Datadog (DDOG)
📊 Revenue $886M (+28% YoY BEAT) | Adj EPS $0.55 vs $0.46 Est | 4,060 $100K+ Customers (+16% YoY) | 120% NRR | 23% Op Margin
Non-AI Revenue Growth Accelerated to 20% YoY | New Logo Bookings More Than Doubled YoY | 84% Using 2+ Products | AI Cohort Now 12% of Revenue | RPO Up 53% YoY | October Trends Remain Strong
💰 Market Cap: $56.8B | 🏢 6.5K Employees | 🌍 Global (US, EMEA, APAC)
👨💼 CEO Olivier Pomel | 🎯 Cloud-Native Observability Leader | 🇺🇸 New York City
$188.01
📈 +$33.03 (+21.3%) Today
+130% YTD | Q3 2025 Blowout Quarter
Price Targets (12-18 Months)
Current Price: $188.01
$245.00
Bull Case (+30%)
2026 Revenue: $4.5B | P/S Multiple: 13.5x
AI Acceleration
🚀 Needs:
Enterprise customer count accelerates to 5,000+ ($100K+ ARR) by end of 2025 • Revenue growth sustains above 25% through 2026 driven by AI/ML workload monitoring expansion • Operating margin expands to 27%+ as platform scales • Security and observability products drive 40%+ of new bookings • Successfully monetizes 1,000+ integrations ecosystem • Market share gains from legacy monitoring vendors accelerate
$210.00
Base Case (+12%)
2026 Revenue: $4.2B | P/S Multiple: 12x
Steady Growth
⚖️ Needs:
Revenue growth moderates to 22-24% range as company scales • Enterprise customer additions maintain current 800-850 annual pace • Operating margins stabilize in 23-25% range • Successfully competes with Dynatrace, Splunk, New Relic in cloud monitoring • Maintains current dollar-based net retention in mid-110% range • Platform adoption broadens across existing customer base • Cloud infrastructure spending remains healthy
$145.00
Bear Case (-23%)
2026 Revenue: $3.8B | P/S Multiple: 9x
Growth Deceleration
⚠️ Risk:
Cloud spending slowdown impacts customer expansion and new bookings • Revenue growth decelerates to sub-20% as market matures • Competitive pressure from AWS CloudWatch, Azure Monitor, Google Cloud Operations intensifies • Customer churn increases as observability gets commoditized • Valuation multiple compression from 18x P/S to single digits • Failed product launches or integration challenges • Macro headwinds force IT budget cuts
The TL;DR
💰
What Happened
Revenue Beat: $886M vs $853M estimate, up 28% YoY, strongest sequential usage growth in 12 quarters
Profitability Surge: Adj EPS $0.55 vs $0.46 estimate, 23% op margin, $214M FCF (24% margin)
Customer Expansion: 4,060 customers with $100K+ ARR (89% of ARR), 32,000 total customers
Billings Acceleration: $893M billings (+30% YoY), RPO $2.79B (+53% YoY), CRPO low-50% growth
Non-AI Acceleration: Non-AI customer growth reaccelerated to 20% YoY from 18% in Q2
Profitability Surge: Adj EPS $0.55 vs $0.46 estimate, 23% op margin, $214M FCF (24% margin)
Customer Expansion: 4,060 customers with $100K+ ARR (89% of ARR), 32,000 total customers
Billings Acceleration: $893M billings (+30% YoY), RPO $2.79B (+53% YoY), CRPO low-50% growth
Non-AI Acceleration: Non-AI customer growth reaccelerated to 20% YoY from 18% in Q2
📈
Why It Matters
New Logo Momentum: New logo bookings more than doubled YoY, new customers now 25% of revenue growth vs 20% in Q2
Digital Experience Suite: RUM, Synthetics, Product Analytics now exceed $300M ARR, named Gartner Leader 2nd year
Security Acceleration: Security ARR growth mid-50% YoY (up from mid-40% in Q2), Cloud SIEM winning large deals
AI Observability Traction: 5,000+ customers sending AI data, LLM spans quadrupled in 3 months, BITS AI SRE in thousands of previews
Platform Network Effects: Customers use 50+ integrations on average, $1M+ customers use 150+ integrations
Digital Experience Suite: RUM, Synthetics, Product Analytics now exceed $300M ARR, named Gartner Leader 2nd year
Security Acceleration: Security ARR growth mid-50% YoY (up from mid-40% in Q2), Cloud SIEM winning large deals
AI Observability Traction: 5,000+ customers sending AI data, LLM spans quadrupled in 3 months, BITS AI SRE in thousands of previews
Platform Network Effects: Customers use 50+ integrations on average, $1M+ customers use 150+ integrations
🎯
What's Next
October Momentum: Management confirmed acceleration trend continued into October across customer base
Q4 Guidance Beat: $914M midpoint 3.2% above consensus, implies 24% growth with typical holiday seasonality
FY 2025 Raised: $3.39B revenue (26% growth), $2.01 adj EPS raised 10.7%, confidence in demand environment
BITS AI GA Coming: Thousands of preview customers, "radically transform observability" per CEO, GA expected soon
Strong Q4 Pipeline: CEO noted "really exciting pipeline for Q4" with go-to-market investments paying off
Q4 Guidance Beat: $914M midpoint 3.2% above consensus, implies 24% growth with typical holiday seasonality
FY 2025 Raised: $3.39B revenue (26% growth), $2.01 adj EPS raised 10.7%, confidence in demand environment
BITS AI GA Coming: Thousands of preview customers, "radically transform observability" per CEO, GA expected soon
Strong Q4 Pipeline: CEO noted "really exciting pipeline for Q4" with go-to-market investments paying off
💡
Bottom Line for Retail Investors
Datadog delivered a textbook execution quarter with broad-based strength across every segment. The non-AI customer base reaccelerated to 20% growth (from 18%), new logo bookings more than doubled, and the October momentum confirms sustainability. Management's commentary was unusually confident—calling out "exciting Q4 pipeline" and highlighting that growth is coming from product innovation (FlexLogs, Product Analytics, Security), not just AI hype. With 500+ AI-native companies (100 over $100K ARR, 15 over $1M), Datadog is capturing the full AI infrastructure wave while maintaining strength in core observability. The 120% NRR, 53% RPO growth, and expanding operating margins show a company firing on all cylinders. At 18x forward sales, DDOG isn't cheap, but the quality of execution, product velocity (BITS AI agents getting "radically transformative" feedback), and 25+ year secular cloud/AI tailwinds justify premium valuation for patient investors.
🐂 Bull Thesis
🚀
Enterprise Land-and-Expand Engine
New Logo Explosion: New logo bookings more than doubled YoY, new customers now 25% of revenue growth
Multi-Product Adoption: 84% use 2+ products, 54% use 4+, 31% use 6+, 16% use 8+ products (all up YoY)
Seven-Figure Deals: Multiple 7-figure land deals in Q3, including largest-ever European land (11 products, $1M+ savings)
Platform Stickiness: Average customer uses 50+ integrations, $1M+ customers use 150+ integrations creating switching costs
Multi-Product Adoption: 84% use 2+ products, 54% use 4+, 31% use 6+, 16% use 8+ products (all up YoY)
Seven-Figure Deals: Multiple 7-figure land deals in Q3, including largest-ever European land (11 products, $1M+ savings)
Platform Stickiness: Average customer uses 50+ integrations, $1M+ customers use 150+ integrations creating switching costs
🤖
AI Infrastructure Tailwind
AI Customer Growth: 500+ AI-native companies, 100 spending $100K+, 15 spending $1M+ annually with Datadog
AI Cohort Acceleration: AI cohort now 12% of revenue (up from 11% in Q2, 6% a year ago), growing faster ex-largest customer
LLM Observability Explosion: LLM spans sent to Datadog quadrupled in past 3 months, 5,000+ customers sending AI data
BITS AI Breakthrough: Thousands in preview, "3 minutes to conclusion that took 20 engineers 2 hours" per customer quote
AI Cohort Acceleration: AI cohort now 12% of revenue (up from 11% in Q2, 6% a year ago), growing faster ex-largest customer
LLM Observability Explosion: LLM spans sent to Datadog quadrupled in past 3 months, 5,000+ customers sending AI data
BITS AI Breakthrough: Thousands in preview, "3 minutes to conclusion that took 20 engineers 2 hours" per customer quote
💪
Best-in-Class Unit Economics
Free Cash Flow: $214M (24% margin) in Q3, $251M operating cash flow showing capital efficiency
Gross Margin Stable: 81.2% gross margin maintained while scaling, engineering cost savings initiatives delivering
Billings Acceleration: $893M billings up 30% YoY, ahead of revenue growth showing healthy future consumption
Balance Sheet Fortress: $4.1B cash, zero debt, RPO $2.79B (+53% YoY) provides M&A flexibility and recession cushion
Gross Margin Stable: 81.2% gross margin maintained while scaling, engineering cost savings initiatives delivering
Billings Acceleration: $893M billings up 30% YoY, ahead of revenue growth showing healthy future consumption
Balance Sheet Fortress: $4.1B cash, zero debt, RPO $2.79B (+53% YoY) provides M&A flexibility and recession cushion
🏆
Competitive Moat Widening
Security Inflection: Security ARR growth accelerated to mid-50% YoY from mid-40% in Q2, all security products accelerating
Product Velocity: Digital Experience $300M+ ARR, Product Analytics adopted by 1,000+ customers already
Tool Consolidation Wins: Customers replacing 10-14 tools with Datadog, Fortune 500 tech choosing as "strategic observability partner"
Go-to-Market Scale: New Fortune 500 motion delivering, sales capacity investments paying off, Q4 pipeline "really exciting"
Product Velocity: Digital Experience $300M+ ARR, Product Analytics adopted by 1,000+ customers already
Tool Consolidation Wins: Customers replacing 10-14 tools with Datadog, Fortune 500 tech choosing as "strategic observability partner"
Go-to-Market Scale: New Fortune 500 motion delivering, sales capacity investments paying off, Q4 pipeline "really exciting"
🐻 Bear Thesis
📉
Valuation Stretched at 18x Sales
Premium Multiple: Trading at 18x forward revenue vs peers at 10-12x, vulnerable to multiple compression on any miss
Law of Large Numbers: $3.4B revenue base makes maintaining 25%+ growth increasingly difficult, deceleration expected
High Expectations: Stock up 92% YTD, market pricing in continued execution perfection with little margin for error
Comp Plan Changes: Management tweaking sales comp to incentivize new logos over expansions may create execution risk
Law of Large Numbers: $3.4B revenue base makes maintaining 25%+ growth increasingly difficult, deceleration expected
High Expectations: Stock up 92% YTD, market pricing in continued execution perfection with little margin for error
Comp Plan Changes: Management tweaking sales comp to incentivize new logos over expansions may create execution risk
⚔️
Intensifying Competition
Cloud Native Offerings: AWS CloudWatch, Azure Monitor, GCP Operations bundled for free/cheap
Price Pressure: Hyperscalers can undercut on price using monitoring as loss leader for cloud consumption
Splunk/Cisco: $28B Cisco acquisition of Splunk creates formidable competitor with enterprise reach
Good-Enough Problem: Native tools improving rapidly, risk of observability becoming commoditized
Price Pressure: Hyperscalers can undercut on price using monitoring as loss leader for cloud consumption
Splunk/Cisco: $28B Cisco acquisition of Splunk creates formidable competitor with enterprise reach
Good-Enough Problem: Native tools improving rapidly, risk of observability becoming commoditized
💸
Usage-Based Revenue Volatility
Consumption Model Risk: Usage-based pricing means customers can optimize/reduce spend quickly during macro weakness
Large Customer Concentration: Extended largest AI customer with "better economics" (i.e., lower pricing) could pressure margins
Holiday Seasonality: Q4 guidance incorporates vacation/holiday usage drops, pattern repeats annually creating volatility
Optimization Pressure: As cloud bills rise, customers increasingly using FlexLogs and cost management tools to reduce Datadog spend
Large Customer Concentration: Extended largest AI customer with "better economics" (i.e., lower pricing) could pressure margins
Holiday Seasonality: Q4 guidance incorporates vacation/holiday usage drops, pattern repeats annually creating volatility
Optimization Pressure: As cloud bills rise, customers increasingly using FlexLogs and cost management tools to reduce Datadog spend
🌪️
Market Maturity and Saturation
Non-AI Growth Still Modest: Despite "acceleration," non-AI customers only growing 20% YoY, need AI for topline momentum
AI Customer Dependency: AI cohort jumped from 6% to 12% of revenue in one year, creating concentration risk if AI spend slows
SMB Weakness Potential: Management noted SMB included in strong numbers, but this segment most vulnerable to macro downturn
Product Sprawl Risk: Adding Security, Product Analytics, BITS AI while competing in core observability spreads focus thin
AI Customer Dependency: AI cohort jumped from 6% to 12% of revenue in one year, creating concentration risk if AI spend slows
SMB Weakness Potential: Management noted SMB included in strong numbers, but this segment most vulnerable to macro downturn
Product Sprawl Risk: Adding Security, Product Analytics, BITS AI while competing in core observability spreads focus thin
This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Please consult with a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

