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- F 3Q25 - Beat and raise and 52 week highs. Bull case $20 Bear case $9
F 3Q25 - Beat and raise and 52 week highs. Bull case $20 Bear case $9
Cheat Sheets
FORD MOTOR COMPANY (F)
📊 Revenue $50.5B (+9% YoY BEAT) | Adj EPS $0.45 vs $0.35 Est | "Would Have Raised Guidance to $8B+" | 818K Pro Subscribers (+8%) | Best In Class Launch Quality
$1B Tariff Credit From Trump Policy | Novelis Recovery Late Nov/Early Dec | 95% UEV Sourcing Complete | 900 AI Cameras Deployed | 7x Longer Powertrain Testing | ServiceTitan Partnership 💰 Market Cap: $49B | 🏢 171K Employees | 🌍 Global Automaker
👨💼 CEO Jim Farley | 🎯 Ford+ Turnaround | 🇺🇸 Dearborn, MI
$13.59
📈 +$1.25 (+10.1%) Opening Price
+24% YTD | Q3 2025 Strong Beat Rally
Price Targets (12-18 Months)
Current Price: $13.59 (Opening Price Oct 24)
$20.00
Bull Case (+47%)
2027 EPS: $2.00 | P/E: 10x
Ford+ Accelerates
🚀 Needs:
Ford Pro software flywheel accelerates • 20-point service capture rate advantage materializes • ServiceTitan partnership scales • UEV platform launches on time in Louisville • LFP Marshall plant production starts • 1,000 new jobs recover full 100K units • Expedition's 3-point share gain continues • $1B+ annual cost cuts sustainable
$16.00
Base Case (+18%)
2027 EPS: $1.60 | P/E: 10x
Steady Execution
⚖️ Needs:
Hot Mill restarts late Nov/early Dec as guided • 50K units recovered in 2026 • Pro subscribers grow to 1M+ • 2026 cost saves deliver another $1B • EPA compliance headwind removed • Hybrid 70% truck share holds • Inventory discipline maintained (520K gross 2026) • SMB/government mix balanced
$9.00
Bear Case (-34%)
2027 EPS: $0.90 | P/E: 10x
Structural Issues
⚠️ Risk:
Hot Mill restart delays past Dec • Only 50K of 100K units recovered = permanent loss • UEV platform delayed past 2027 • LFP Marshall production issues • 900 AI cameras don't prevent defects • Launch quality gains not durable • Government fleet softness worsens • SMB revenue mix deteriorates • ServiceTitan integration flops • Tariff policy reversesThe TL;DR
💰
What Happened
REVENUE: $50.5B vs $47.0B est - MASSIVE BEAT
EPS: $0.45 vs $0.35 est - BEAT
WITHOUT NOVELIS: Would've raised to $8B+ EBIT
CASH: $4.3B adj FCF in quarter
COSTS: Fifth straight quarter improvement
EPS: $0.45 vs $0.35 est - BEAT
WITHOUT NOVELIS: Would've raised to $8B+ EBIT
CASH: $4.3B adj FCF in quarter
COSTS: Fifth straight quarter improvement
📈
Why It Matters
TARIFF CREDIT: $1B refund from Trump proclamation
PRO FORTRESS: "No longer disadvantaged" - Farley
QUALITY LEADER: "Most awarded brand" - JD Power 2025
HYBRID KING: 70% share of hybrid truck market
EXPEDITION HOT: +3 points segment share, 75% high trims
PRO FORTRESS: "No longer disadvantaged" - Farley
QUALITY LEADER: "Most awarded brand" - JD Power 2025
HYBRID KING: 70% share of hybrid truck market
EXPEDITION HOT: +3 points segment share, 75% high trims
🚨
The Risks
NOVELIS FIRE: Hot Mill down, 90-100K units lost Q4
EV BLOODBATH: Model e losing $1.4B per quarter
PARTIAL RECOVERY: Only 50K of 100K units back 2026
TARIFFS: $1.7B YTD before $1B credit
UEV RISK: Louisville equipment install just starting
EV BLOODBATH: Model e losing $1.4B per quarter
PARTIAL RECOVERY: Only 50K of 100K units back 2026
TARIFFS: $1.7B YTD before $1B credit
UEV RISK: Louisville equipment install just starting
💡
Bottom Line
CORE SOLID: 818K Pro subs, best launch quality ever
SUPPLIER SHOCK: Novelis one-time but painful
TRUMP BOOST: $1B tariff credit changes calculus
2026 SETUP: Another $1B costs + $1B Novelis recovery
EV PIVOT: UEV at $30K starting point smart
SUPPLIER SHOCK: Novelis one-time but painful
TRUMP BOOST: $1B tariff credit changes calculus
2026 SETUP: Another $1B costs + $1B Novelis recovery
EV PIVOT: UEV at $30K starting point smart
🐂 Bull Thesis
🏭
Ford Pro Fortress
$2B QUARTERLY: Consistent EBIT machine
818K SUBSCRIBERS: +8% YoY paid subscriptions
SERVICETITAN: Embedded real-time data partnership
20-POINT CAPTURE: Software subs = 20pt higher service parts
1,700 BAYS: Added service capacity this year
500 MOBILE VANS: Largest mobile fleet in US
818K SUBSCRIBERS: +8% YoY paid subscriptions
SERVICETITAN: Embedded real-time data partnership
20-POINT CAPTURE: Software subs = 20pt higher service parts
1,700 BAYS: Added service capacity this year
500 MOBILE VANS: Largest mobile fleet in US
💸
Cost Transformation
$1B CUTS 2025: Fifth straight quarter delivered
$1B MORE 2026: Confirmed by Sherry on call
7X TESTING: Powertrain testing regimen 7x longer
900 AI CAMERAS: Deployed across plants for quality
BEST LAUNCH QUALITY: 6 nameplates best-in-class, 3 top quartile
JD POWER LEADER: Most awarded brand 2025 IQS
$1B MORE 2026: Confirmed by Sherry on call
7X TESTING: Powertrain testing regimen 7x longer
900 AI CAMERAS: Deployed across plants for quality
BEST LAUNCH QUALITY: 6 nameplates best-in-class, 3 top quartile
JD POWER LEADER: Most awarded brand 2025 IQS
🤖
Smart EV Pivot
$30K STARTING PRICE: UEV affordable positioning
95% SOURCING: Complete, vehicles being tested now
LOUISVILLE INSTALL: Equipment installation this year
LFP MARSHALL: Michigan cell production starts this year
5% US MARKET: Right-sized EV expectations
HYBRID PRIORITY: Extended range options across lineup
95% SOURCING: Complete, vehicles being tested now
LOUISVILLE INSTALL: Equipment installation this year
LFP MARSHALL: Michigan cell production starts this year
5% US MARKET: Right-sized EV expectations
HYBRID PRIORITY: Extended range options across lineup
⏰
Regulatory Tailwinds
$1B TARIFF CREDIT: Friday proclamation signed by Trump
MSRP OFFSET: Greater % of MSRP applies to parts now
SUPER DUTY WIN: No longer disadvantaged vs imports
EPA COMPLIANCE: Headwind removal expected soon
CALIFORNIA ZEV: Federal legislation scaled back
FARLEY THANKS: "Thank President Trump" direct quote
MSRP OFFSET: Greater % of MSRP applies to parts now
SUPER DUTY WIN: No longer disadvantaged vs imports
EPA COMPLIANCE: Headwind removal expected soon
CALIFORNIA ZEV: Federal legislation scaled back
FARLEY THANKS: "Thank President Trump" direct quote
🐻 Bear Thesis
📉
EV Money Pit
$1.4B QUARTERLY: Model e bleeding cash
-79% MARGIN: Catastrophic economics
$3.6B YTD: Year-to-date losses mounting
STRANDED COSTS: Pivot leaves waste
PLATFORM RISK: Universal EV unproven
COMPETITION: Tesla + Chinese dominance
-79% MARGIN: Catastrophic economics
$3.6B YTD: Year-to-date losses mounting
STRANDED COSTS: Pivot leaves waste
PLATFORM RISK: Universal EV unproven
COMPETITION: Tesla + Chinese dominance
💸
Supply Chain Nightmare
HOT MILL DOWN: Late Nov/early Dec restart guided
90-100K UNITS: Lost in Q4 specifically
50K RECOVERY: Only half made up in 2026
$2B TOTAL IMPACT: Through 2026 before mitigation
THIRD SHIFT: Dearborn + Kentucky line speed up
1,000 NEW JOBS: To recover production
90-100K UNITS: Lost in Q4 specifically
50K RECOVERY: Only half made up in 2026
$2B TOTAL IMPACT: Through 2026 before mitigation
THIRD SHIFT: Dearborn + Kentucky line speed up
1,000 NEW JOBS: To recover production
🤖
Margin Compression
$1.7B TARIFF COST: Year-to-date before credit
$1B Q4 REFUND: Receivable from Friday proclamation
NET $1B TARIFF: Full year after offsetting credit
2026 SIMILAR: Roughly same tariff environment expected
BOOKS CLOSED Q3: Couldn't record credit until Q4
GUIDANCE MATH: Would've been $8B+ without Novelis
$1B Q4 REFUND: Receivable from Friday proclamation
NET $1B TARIFF: Full year after offsetting credit
2026 SIMILAR: Roughly same tariff environment expected
BOOKS CLOSED Q3: Couldn't record credit until Q4
GUIDANCE MATH: Would've been $8B+ without Novelis
⏰
Execution Uncertainty
INVENTORY DOWN: 520K gross stock target 2026 (-6%)
55-59 DAYS: Retail stock ending 2025
GOVERNMENT SOFT: Offset by SMB but mix risk remains
UEV TIMELINE: Equipment install just starting
RECALL RISK: Years 3-5 peak period approaching
ADAM JONAS EXIT: Key activist investor moving on
55-59 DAYS: Retail stock ending 2025
GOVERNMENT SOFT: Offset by SMB but mix risk remains
UEV TIMELINE: Equipment install just starting
RECALL RISK: Years 3-5 peak period approaching
ADAM JONAS EXIT: Key activist investor moving on
This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Please consult with a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
