HIMS -3Q25 preview - Menopause before more upside? Bull case $85 Bear case $28

Cheat Sheets

October 15, 2025

Hims & Hers Health - Q3 Earnings Preview: Revenue +73% YoY, Menopause Launch, Stock +135% YTD But FDA Heat Rising

HIMS & HERS HEALTH (HIMS)

💊🚀 Telehealth Rocket | GLP-1 Weight Loss Juggernaut, Menopause Launch Oct 15, Stock Ripped +135% But FDA Warning Letters

Q3 2025 Earnings: Nov 3 | Q2 Revenue $545M (+73% YoY), 2.4M Subscribers (+31%), Just Launched Menopause Care, FDA Crackdown on GLP-1 Compounding

💰 Market Cap: $12.2B | 🏢 Employees: 1,637 | 📊 Cash: $1.1B (Zero Debt)
👨‍💼 CEO Andrew Dudum | 🎯 2.4M Subscribers | 🏆 Hers $1B Revenue Target 2026
$61.77
📈 +$8.74 (+16.5%) Day | -$0.99 (-1.6%) AH | +$36.75 (+147%) YTD
After Hours (Oct 15)
Price Target Scenarios

18-Month Price Targets (Stock at $61.77 Today)

$85.00
Bull Case (+38%)
Full Platform
GLP-1 Dominates
📊 Valuation:
• 2026E EPS: $1.10 × P/E: 77x = $85.00 (Growth Premium)
🚀 What Needs To Happen:
FDA backs off compounding • Generic GLP-1s approved fast • Menopause explodes (Hers $1B+ 2026) • International ZAVA crushes UK/Europe • 3M+ subscribers • $3B+ revenue 2026 • Weight loss stays red-hot • AI personalization scales • Canadian launch success • Lab testing memberships grow • Multi-condition subscribers 40%+ • Margins expand to 20%+
$75.00
Base Case (+21%)
Steady Growth
Navigate FDA
📊 Valuation:
• 2026E EPS: $0.95 × P/E: 79x = $75.00
⚖️ What Needs To Happen:
Q2 momentum continues • Hit $2.3-2.4B guidance 2025 • Navigate FDA compounding rules • Menopause adds $300-400M 2026 • GLP-1s stay available via personalization • ZAVA contributes $100M+ • Weight loss stabilizes • Subscriber growth 25-30% • Specialty expansion success • Margins expand to 17-19% • Clear path to profitability 2026
$35.00
Bear Case (-43%)
FDA Crushes
GLP-1 Gone
📊 Valuation:
• 2026E EPS: $0.25 × P/E: 140x = $35.00 (Multiple Compression)
🔻 What Goes Wrong:
FDA bans ALL compounding • Eli Lilly/Novo price war destroys GLP-1 margins • Weight loss crash • Subscriber churn accelerates • Sexual health decline continues • Menopause flops • RFK Jr attacks GLP-1s • Lawsuits succeed • International expansion tanks • Revenue growth <30% • Negative cash flow returns • Valuation multiple crashes • Competition intensifies
TL;DR - What You Need To Know
💊
They're Disrupting Healthcare
Leading telehealth platform with 2.4M subscribers. Offers weight loss (GLP-1 compounded versions), hair loss, sexual health, dermatology, mental health. Just launched menopause care Oct 15 targeting $17B market. Hers aiming for $1B revenue 2026. Personalized prescriptions at fraction of traditional costs. Direct-to-consumer model crushing it.
⚖️
The FDA Problem
FDA sent warning letter Sept 9 about GLP-1 compounding marketing claims. Said "false and misleading" for saying same active ingredient as Wegovy/Ozempic. Compounded drugs NOT FDA-approved. Stock tanked -6% on news. $190M Q2 weight loss revenue. Regulatory uncertainty massive. Could lose compounding ability.
📈
Why Bulls Are Buying
Revenue +73% Q2. Subscribers +31%. Affirmed $2.3-2.4B FY25 guidance. $1.1B cash. Menopause launch Oct 15 (massive TAM). ZAVA acquisition (Europe). Canadian expansion 2026. Generic liraglutide coming. Multi-specialty platform. Lab testing rollout. AI personalization. Stock up +135% YTD. Momentum insane.
⚠️
What Could Wreck This
FDA crackdown on compounding = death. Eli Lilly/Novo drop prices. GLP-1 shortage ended Feb 2025. Lawsuits from pharma. RFK Jr hates GLP-1s. Sexual health declining. Negative free cash flow Q2 (-$69M). Valuation stretched. Stock +135% YTD = pullback risk. Execution on menopause unproven.

🔥 BREAKING: Last 30 Days

💊 Oct 15: Launched menopause/perimenopause specialty. Stock +12% same day to $61. Targeting $1B Hers revenue 2026.

⚖️ Sept 16: FDA sent warning letter about "false and misleading" GLP-1 compounding marketing. Stock -6.5%.

📅 Oct 13: Announced Q3 earnings date: Nov 3, 2025 after market close. Conference call 5pm ET.

🇪🇺 Aug 4: Acquired ZAVA (UK/Europe telehealth) to expand internationally. Announced Q2 results.

💉 Sept 10: Launched low testosterone treatment with exclusive branded oral testosterone KYZATREX.

📊 Q2 2025 Results & Q3 Preview: Growth Machine But FDA Headwinds

HIMS crushed Q2 with 73% revenue growth to $545M and 31% subscriber growth to 2.4M. Adjusted EBITDA $82M, net income $43M. GLP-1 weight loss exploding. But FDA warning letter Sept 9 creates huge uncertainty. Q3 earnings Nov 3 - market expects $579M revenue.

✅
$0.17
Q2 EPS
Beat $0.15 Estimate
💰
$545M
Q2 Revenue
+73% YoY Growth
👥
2.4M
Subscribers
+31% YoY
🎯
$2.3-2.4B
FY25 Guidance
Affirmed

📞 Key Q2 2025 Earnings Highlights & Q3 Preview

🚀
Weight Loss Is The Engine
Q2: GLP-1 weight loss ~$190M revenue (down from $230M Q1 due to off-boarding commercial dosages). Compounded semaglutide = personalized 503A formulations. Generic liraglutide coming 2025. Weight loss specialty growing fast. 25% discontinuation rate vs 80% industry = retention king.
💊
Menopause = Next Big Bet
Launched Oct 15, 2025. $17.3B market. 1.3M US women hit menopause yearly. Only 30% OB/GYN programs train in menopause. Estradiol + progesterone treatments. Targeting $1B Hers revenue 2026 (currently $500K+ subscribers). Game-changer if execution works.
🌍
International Expansion Via ZAVA
Acquired ZAVA Aug 2025 for UK/Europe presence. Entering Canada 2026 with weight loss focus. Targeting $1B international revenue by FY30 (from $50M FY25). Replicating US success in regulated European markets. ZAVA brings expertise navigating complex regulations.
⚖️
FDA Warning = Massive Risk
Sept 9 warning letter for "false and misleading" GLP-1 marketing claims. 55 companies warned. FDA ended tirzepatide shortage Dec 2024, semaglutide Feb 2025. Compounding allowed only for personalization. HIMS offers "personalized" dosages. Legal gray area. RFK Jr hates GLP-1s. Stock -6% on news.

📍 What The CEO Said: "It's never been more clear that we are delivering exactly what millions of people have been waiting for: access to personalized, high-quality care that meets people where they are." Translation: defending compounding model as personalization, not copying. Emphasizing customer demand and care quality.

💸 Cash Flow Situation: Q2 negative free cash flow -$69M due to inventory and working capital investments. Gross margin 76% (down from 81% YoY). Adjusted EBITDA strong at $82M (+109% YoY). Path to profitability clear IF revenue keeps scaling. $1.1B cash cushion = runway secure.

📉 Headwinds: Sexual health on-demand declining (low-value Viagra business). Monthly revenue per subscriber down to $74 from $84 as mix shifts. GLP-1 subscriber off-boarding from commercial dosages. Q3 guidance $570-590M implies some slowdown. Negative FCF continuing.

🔮 What's Next Q3: Nov 3 earnings. Consensus: $579M revenue, $0.10 EPS. Watch: (1) FDA response progress, (2) menopause launch traction (too early), (3) GLP-1 subscriber trends, (4) international ZAVA contribution, (5) cash flow improvement, (6) FY25 guidance reiteration. KEY: Ability to navigate FDA without losing compounding = everything. If lose GLP-1 compounding = stock craters 50%+.

🚀 Why HIMS Bulls Are Right
💊
Disrupting $4 Trillion Healthcare Industry
Telehealth platform solving REAL problems: convenience, affordability, privacy. GLP-1 weight loss at $165/month vs $1,000+ retail = 6-10x cheaper. 2.4M subscribers paying monthly. Multi-specialty model = stickiness. Hair loss, ED, dermatology, mental health, weight loss, menopause. 1.5M on personalized treatments. Direct-to-consumer crushing traditional healthcare.
📈
Growth Is INSANE
Q2: Revenue +73% YoY to $545M. Subscribers +31%. Adjusted EBITDA margin >15%. FY25 guiding $2.3-2.4B (+56-63% YoY). FY30 target: $6.5B revenue, $1.3B EBITDA. From $1.5B 2024 to $6.5B 2030 = 4.3x in 6 years. If hit targets, stock 3-5x easy from here. Platform economics improving with scale.
🌍
Menopause = Massive TAM
Launched Oct 15. $17.3B market. 1.3M US women yearly. Only 30% docs trained. Stock +12% on launch day. If capture even 5% = $850M+ annual revenue. Estradiol + progesterone hormone therapies. Women spend 25% MORE time in poor health than men. Hers targeting $1B revenue 2026. Could be bigger than weight loss.
🛡️
FDA Risk Overblown
Warning letter = compliance issue, not shutdown. HIMS offers TRUE personalization (dosing, formulations). 503A compounding legal for personalized needs. Generic liraglutide coming = non-compounded option. Even if lose compounding, diversified across hair, ED, derm, mental health, menopause. Plus ZAVA international = not reliant on US GLP-1s. Worst case priced in already.
🐻 Why HIMS Bears Have Valid Concerns
⚖️
FDA Could Kill The Business
Sept 9 warning letter = existential threat. 55 compounders warned. If FDA bans personalized compounding = GLP-1 business gone. Weight loss ~$190M Q2 revenue = huge chunk. RFK Jr. as HHS Secretary HATES GLP-1s and pharma. Eli Lilly + Novo lawsuits ongoing. Legal gray area on "personalization." Could lose right to compound ANY drugs.
💸
Valuation Is STRETCHED
$12.2B market cap. P/E ratio insane (stock +135% YTD). Q2 net income only $43M = trading 284x earnings. Negative free cash flow -$69M Q2. Revenue multiple expensive vs traditional healthcare. ANY miss or slowdown = 30-50% drop overnight. Priced for perfection. Already pulling back from $73 high.
📉
Core Business Declining
Sexual health on-demand shrinking (low-margin Viagra). Monthly revenue per subscriber DOWN to $74 from $84 (bad mix shift). GLP-1 weight loss revenue DOWN Q1→Q2 ($230M→$190M). Gross margin compression (76% from 81%). Burning cash operationally. Growth masking deteriorating unit economics. Need constant NEW specialty launches to offset declines.
🥊
Competition Intensifying
Eli Lilly + Novo cutting prices (both offer ~$500/month GLP-1s now). Amazon entering healthcare. Ro, Noom, Weight Watchers all doing compounded GLP-1s. CVS/Walgreens adding telehealth. Once generic semaglutide widely available = price war. Menopause space crowded. Nothing proprietary about platform. Easy to replicate.

This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Please consult with a financial advisor before making investment decisions.