💰 Market Cap: $130B | 🏢 2.3K Employees | 🌍 US + 50+ Countries via Bitstamp

👨‍💼 CEO Vlad Tenev | 🎯 Democratizing Finance | 🇺🇸 Menlo Park, CA

$140.40

📉 -$2.08 (-1.5%) After Hours

+285% YTD | Q3 2025 All-Time High $153.86

🚀 Needs:

Crypto market sustains bull run with BTC above $120K driving transaction revenue above $800M quarterly • Prediction Markets scale to $300M+ quarterly (already at $300M run rate in Oct) expanding to 2,000+ contracts across sports/entertainment/economics • Robinhood Banking reaches 5M+ users with direct deposit adoption—currently rolling out fast with strong early customer feedback • Bitstamp volumes continue 60%+ QoQ growth reaching $200M+ quarterly revenue as institutional business scales • Stock buyback program initiated with $2B authorization while maintaining operating margins above 50%

⚖️ Needs:

Transaction revenue maintains $750M+ quarterly run rate with October setting new all-time single-day and monthly records for equities and options • Net interest income stabilizes at $450M quarterly with margin balances hitting new highs • Gold subscribers grow 50% YoY to 5.8M driven by Banking integration (40% of new customers taking Gold) • Platform assets grow 60% YoY to $530B driven by $75B+ annual net deposits • New HOOD Summit products (shorting, multiple accounts, AI indicators, Robinhood Social) drive ARPU to $220+

⚠️ Risk:

SEC bans or severely restricts payment for order flow eliminating $400M+ in annual revenue • Crypto winter returns with BTC falling below $60K causing transaction revenue to collapse below $300M quarterly • Market volatility drops 40%+ reducing options and equities trading volume • Rising customer acquisition costs above $80 per user while ARPU growth slows to single digits • New CFO transition creates execution uncertainty and strategic misalignment

💰

What Happened

Revenue Doubled: $1.27B revenue (+100% YoY) crushed $1.19B estimate—11 business lines now above $100M annualized revenue

Prediction Markets Explosion: Hit $100M+ annualized in under 1 year (fastest in company history), tracking to $300M run rate based on Oct volumes

October Records: New all-time single-day and monthly records for equities, options, prediction markets, and margin balances—Q4 momentum building

Gold Acceleration: 3.9M subscribers (14% overall adoption, 40% of new customers), 500K+ Gold cardholders with $8B annual spend (5X YoY growth)

Banking Early Success: Fast rollout underway with direct deposit adoption in early customers, NY market already live with cash delivery

📈

Why It Matters

11 Business Lines at Scale: Two more businesses (Prediction Markets, Bitstamp) crossed $100M annualized—growing diversification reduces single-point risk

Incremental Margins: 75% incremental adjusted EBITDA margins YTD means every new dollar of revenue drops $0.75 to bottom line

Product Velocity Accelerating: Launched shorting, multiple accounts, AI-driven indicators, Robinhood Social at HOOD Summit—relentless innovation pace

Wealth Transfer Positioning: $333B platform assets capturing generational shift—retirement assets $25B+ (doubled YoY), Strategies hit $1B AUM since March launch

General Manager Model: Org restructure to GM model with clear ROI hurdles accelerated decision-making and product launches

🎯

What's Next

Banking Accelerating: "Relatively fast rollout" per CEO—simpler than credit card, no surprises expected, direct deposit adoption strong in early users

AI Event Dec 16: First-ever AI event showcasing best-in-class AI deployment in customer service and engineering—CEO says "leading financial services industry"

Robinhood Ventures Launch: On file with SEC for Fund One, giving unaccredited retail access to private companies—strong customer demand expected

1,000+ Live Contracts: Prediction Markets expanding beyond politics to sports, economics, culture, entertainment—UI improvements and discoverability coming

CFO Transition Q1 2026: Shiv Verma (7-year Robinhood veteran, SVP Finance/Strategy/Treasury) takes over from Jason Warnick—continuity ensured

💡

Bottom Line for Retail Investors

Robinhood just proved it's building a financial empire, not a trading app. Revenue doubled to $1.27B with 75% incremental EBITDA margins while launching products faster than any competitor. The real story isn't just the crypto surge—it's that Prediction Markets hit $100M revenue in under a year (fastest in company history) and is already tracking to $300M run rate. The CEO's 10-year vision is audacious: over 50% of revenue from outside the US and over 50% from institutional (currently majority retail). October set all-time records across equities, options, predictions, and margin—momentum is explosive. At $140, you're paying 74x earnings for a company with 11 business lines above $100M and three strategic focus areas firing simultaneously: active traders (record volumes), wallet share (40% of new customers take Gold), and global expansion (Bitstamp up 60% QoQ). The risk? Management admitted expense guidance rose to $2.28B for growth investments. But if they execute this vision, a $165 base case looks conservative—the bull case of $200 is achievable by late 2026, and $300+ by 2027 as international and institutional revenue scales. High risk, higher reward. The product velocity is unmatched.

🚀

Revenue Diversification Machine

11 Business Lines at Scale: Each generating $100M+ annualized revenue (added 2 in Q3 alone)—unprecedented diversification for fintech

Fastest Launch Ever: Prediction Markets hit $100M run rate in under 1 year, now tracking to $300M based on October volumes

Banking Simple Rollout: CEO says "relatively fast" vs credit card complexity—early direct deposit adoption strong, NY market already live

Robinhood Ventures Filing: SEC-filed Fund One gives unaccredited retail private company access—85% of Americans currently excluded from this market

💎

Crypto Dominance Position

Smart Exchange Routing: High 60bp blended take rate maintained in Q4—active traders bringing more volume with personalized pricing tiers

$1B Staked Assets: Exited Q3 with ~$1B in crypto staking balances—new high-margin revenue stream scaling rapidly

Bitstamp Acceleration: Volumes up 60%+ QoQ post-acquisition—"very key to our tokenization plans" per CEO for phase 2 rollout

Institutional Feedback Loop: First scaled institutional business provides "lots of choices" feedback—CEO says customers "not shy about telling us things we need to do better"

🎯

Prediction Markets Gold Rush

$300M Run Rate: October volumes alone suggest $300M annualized revenue—tripled in 3 months from $100M run rate in July

1,000+ Live Contracts: Expanded from politics to sports, economics, entertainment, culture—CEO says "could be one of the largest asset classes"

Large Kalshi Volume: CFO noted "very large chunk of Kalshi's volume is actually coming from Robinhood"—dominant distribution

International Expansion: Management "definitely closely looking" at international rollout leveraging both TradFi and crypto infrastructure

⚡

Operating Leverage Inflection

75% Incremental EBITDA: CFO confirmed 75% incremental adjusted EBITDA margins YTD—every $1 of new revenue = $0.75 profit

AI Leadership Position: CEO says "best in class in our industry" for AI deployment in customer service and engineering—Dec 16 AI event showcase

Low Single-Digit Cost Growth: Existing businesses told to grow costs "low single digits or even lower" while reinvesting savings into new products

GM Model Acceleration: General manager structure with clear ROI hurdles increased decision-making speed and product launch velocity

⚖️

Regulatory & Execution Risk

PFOF Vulnerability: Payment for order flow ~$500M+ annual revenue—SEC could ban overnight (CEO defended vertical integration strategy on call)

Prediction Markets Uncertainty: CFTC/state regulators could restrict—currently relies on Kalshi partnership which generates "very large chunk" of their volume

Platform Outages: Recent AWS outage caused "degraded app performance for significant number of customers"—CEO admitted "did not provide type of experience we would want"

Execution Risk: Banking, Ventures, International, Social all launching simultaneously—management spreading focus across 4+ major initiatives

📉

Revenue Volatility & Cost Creep

Expense Guidance Raised: Full-year OpEx+SBC increased to $2.28B from $2.25B—includes higher bonuses, CEO award vesting, and growth investments

Transaction Dependency: 57% of revenue from trading fees—October strength could reverse quickly if volatility drops in 2026

Crypto Whiplash Risk: Revenue swung $61M to $268M in year—CEO admitted "market's been pretty volatile over last few days" affecting staking

NII Headwinds Coming: Fed rate cuts through 2026 will pressure $456M quarterly net interest income by 30-40%

💸

Valuation Stretched to Breaking

74x P/E Multiple: Trading at 74x trailing earnings vs Schwab 22x, Interactive Brokers 20x—premium unsustainable

280% YTD Gain: Stock already up 280% in 2025, much of positive news priced in, asymmetric downside risk

Analyst Targets Below: Median analyst PT $146 (+6%) with lowest at $50 (-64%)—limited consensus upside from here

Margin Expansion Done: Operating margins at 50%, near theoretical max for fintech—can't expand much further

🏦

Competitive Moat Questions

Shorting Finally Live: CEO admitted "somewhat hard to believe we've been able to get to this point without offering shorting"—basic feature gap vs competitors

International Still Early: CEO called it "10-year vision" and said "we underestimated the growth"—EU/UK have "not much time has passed" (only months old)

AWS Dependency: Recent outage affected "pretty much entire internet" but exposed infrastructure risk—"few years ago we probably would have been fully down"

Social Unproven: Robinhood Social just announced at HOOD Summit—competing against established Twitter/Reddit finance communities without track record