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- INTC 3Q25 - INTC crashing the AI party. Bull case $60. Bear case $24.
INTC 3Q25 - INTC crashing the AI party. Bull case $60. Bear case $24.
Cheat Sheet
INTEL CORPORATION (INTC)
📊 Revenue $13.7B (+3% YoY BEAT) | Adj EPS $0.23 vs $0.01 Est | "Fourth Consecutive Quarter Improved Execution" | Panther Lake By Year End | Fab52 Fully Operational
Central Engineering Group Created | NVIDIA NVLink Integration | Granite Rapids "AI Nodes of Choice" | CoralRapids SMT Multithreading | Agentic + Physical AI Focus | $1.2-1.4B NCI 2026
💰 Market Cap: $172B | 🏢 88K Employees | 🌍 US-Based Foundry
👨💼 CEO Lip-Bu Tan | 🎯 Foundry Turnaround | 🇺🇸 Santa Clara, CA
$41.39
📈 +$3.23 (+8.5%) After Hours
+87% YTD | Q3 2025 Post-Earnings Rally
Price Targets (12-18 Months)
Current Price: $41.39 (After Hours)
$60.00
Bull Case (+45%)
2027 EPS: $2.40 | P/E: 25x
Foundry Wins Big
🚀 Needs:
Panther Lake ships on time • Fab52 yields deliver • Microsoft Maia 2 succeeds + more external wins • NVLink drives multi-gen NVIDIA partnership • CoralRapids SMT closes datacenter gap • Central Engineering eliminates waste • ASIC services expands x86 reach • Agentic/Physical AI inference takes off
$52.00
Base Case (+26%)
2027 EPS: $1.73 | P/E: 30x
Steady Progress
⚖️ Needs:
Fourth quarter streak continues • Panther Lake launches H1 2026 • 18A yields stay on track • Fab52 scales smoothly • PC portfolio competitive vs AMD • Granite Rapids holds hyperscaler share • CoralRapids closes gap • NVLink delivers • RTO culture shift sticks • EMIB wins packaging deals
$24.00
Bear Case (-42%)
2027 EPS: $0.44 | P/E: 55x
Foundry Fails
⚠️ Risk:
DiamondRapids has no date = delay • CoralRapids "definition stage" = vaporware • ArrowLake bleeding to AMD • NovaLake too niche • "Still long way to go" = years not quarters • Inference "multiyear" = no revenue soon • Annual GPU vs NVIDIA = unproven • NVLink announcement ≠ products • Foundry mindset not fixed • Political winds shiftThe TL;DR
💰
What Happened
REVENUE: $13.7B vs $13.14B est - BEAT
EPS: $0.23 vs $0.01 est - MASSIVE BEAT
EXECUTION: Fourth straight quarter improved
CASH: Gov/NVIDIA/SoftBank + Altera sale
HEADCOUNT: On track to right-size by year end
EPS: $0.23 vs $0.01 est - MASSIVE BEAT
EXECUTION: Fourth straight quarter improved
CASH: Gov/NVIDIA/SoftBank + Altera sale
HEADCOUNT: On track to right-size by year end
📈
Why It Matters
AI WAVE: "Can't recall a time more excited" - CEO
X86 EDGE: Critical for hybrid AI compute
INFERENCE BET: "Far larger than training" market
NVIDIA DEAL: NVLink multi-gen partnership
POSITIONING: Only US advanced logic manufacturer
X86 EDGE: Critical for hybrid AI compute
INFERENCE BET: "Far larger than training" market
NVIDIA DEAL: NVLink multi-gen partnership
POSITIONING: Only US advanced logic manufacturer
🎯
Management Strategy
PANTHER LAKE: First SKU by year end
FAB52: Fully operational in Arizona
REORG: Central Engineering cuts duplication
GRANITE RAPIDS: AI nodes at all hyperscalers
CONVICTION: CEO bullish on foundry potential
FAB52: Fully operational in Arizona
REORG: Central Engineering cuts duplication
GRANITE RAPIDS: AI nodes at all hyperscalers
CONVICTION: CEO bullish on foundry potential
⚠️
Key Concerns
TIMELINE: "Still a long way to go" - CEO
DIAMONDRAPIDS: No launch date given
CORALRAPIDS: Still "in definition stage"
CULTURE FIX: Foundry mindset change ongoing
INFERENCE: "Multiyear initiative" = delayed revenue
DIAMONDRAPIDS: No launch date given
CORALRAPIDS: Still "in definition stage"
CULTURE FIX: Foundry mindset change ongoing
INFERENCE: "Multiyear initiative" = delayed revenue
🐂 Bull Thesis
🏭
Foundry Game-Changer
AI CAPACITY CRUNCH: Wafer demand exceeds supply
CULTURE SHIFT: Customer-first foundry mindset
NVIDIA MULTI-GEN: NVLink partnership expands
PACKAGING EDGE: EMIB differentiation
DISCIPLINED CAPEX: Add capacity only with demand
US ADVANTAGE: Only domestic advanced logic
CULTURE SHIFT: Customer-first foundry mindset
NVIDIA MULTI-GEN: NVLink partnership expands
PACKAGING EDGE: EMIB differentiation
DISCIPLINED CAPEX: Add capacity only with demand
US ADVANTAGE: Only domestic advanced logic
💸
Financial Inflection
PROFITABLE: $4.1B income vs -$16.6B loss
MARGINS: 5% operating vs -68% YoY
COST CUTS: $10B target on track
OPEX DOWN: $4.5B vs $11.1B
CASH UP: $11.1B vs $8.2B
DEMAND > SUPPLY: Pricing power returns
MARGINS: 5% operating vs -68% YoY
COST CUTS: $10B target on track
OPEX DOWN: $4.5B vs $11.1B
CASH UP: $11.1B vs $8.2B
DEMAND > SUPPLY: Pricing power returns
🤖
AI Upside Optionality
INFERENCE TAM: Far larger than training
NVLINK ENTRY: Beachhead in AI platforms
X86 MOAT: Largest installed base
EDGE ADVANTAGE: Inference positioning
GPU ROADMAP: Annual launches
PARTNERSHIPS: Where Intel differentiates
NVLINK ENTRY: Beachhead in AI platforms
X86 MOAT: Largest installed base
EDGE ADVANTAGE: Inference positioning
GPU ROADMAP: Annual launches
PARTNERSHIPS: Where Intel differentiates
⏰
Leadership & Execution
STREAK: Four quarters of improvement
REORG: Central Engineering cuts waste
ASIC EXPANSION: x86 to external customers
TALENT: Hiring top architects
RTO WORKING: Collaboration up
CEO CONFIDENCE: Grows daily
REORG: Central Engineering cuts waste
ASIC EXPANSION: x86 to external customers
TALENT: Hiring top architects
RTO WORKING: Collaboration up
CEO CONFIDENCE: Grows daily
🐻 Bear Thesis
📉
18A Yield Crisis Risk
STAGGERED RAMP: H1 2026 ≠ year-end
NO NUMBERS: Evasive on yields
18A NARROW: Need variant = too limited
ZERO EXTERNAL: No paying customers
FAB52 UNPROVEN: Operational ≠ yield
TSMC PROVEN: Why risk Intel?
NO NUMBERS: Evasive on yields
18A NARROW: Need variant = too limited
ZERO EXTERNAL: No paying customers
FAB52 UNPROVEN: Operational ≠ yield
TSMC PROVEN: Why risk Intel?
💸
Foundry Economics Disaster
$100B CAPEX: Before profitability
$2.3B LOSS: Q3 foundry still bleeding
100% INTERNAL: Zero external revenue
PEAK LOSSES: Another year ahead
$17B BURN: 2025-2027 estimate
15% DILUTION: New stakeholders
$2.3B LOSS: Q3 foundry still bleeding
100% INTERNAL: Zero external revenue
PEAK LOSSES: Another year ahead
$17B BURN: 2025-2027 estimate
15% DILUTION: New stakeholders
🤖
Core Business Erosion
DIAMONDRAPIDS MIA: No date given
CORALRAPIDS VAPOR: Definition stage
ARROWLAKE BLEEDS: AMD wins desktop
NOVALAKE NICHE: Won't move needle
MARGINS CRUSHED: AMD/EPYC pressure
GAUDI DEAD: Zero NVIDIA traction
CORALRAPIDS VAPOR: Definition stage
ARROWLAKE BLEEDS: AMD wins desktop
NOVALAKE NICHE: Won't move needle
MARGINS CRUSHED: AMD/EPYC pressure
GAUDI DEAD: Zero NVIDIA traction
⏰
Geopolitical Overvaluation
LONG TIMELINE: Years not quarters
INFERENCE DELAY: Multiyear = no revenue
CULTURE FIX: Mindset change ongoing
GPU UNPROVEN: vs NVIDIA dominance
REORG RISK: More churn ahead
NCI DRAG: $1.2-1.4B expense
POLITICAL WINDS: Support can shift
INFERENCE DELAY: Multiyear = no revenue
CULTURE FIX: Mindset change ongoing
GPU UNPROVEN: vs NVIDIA dominance
REORG RISK: More churn ahead
NCI DRAG: $1.2-1.4B expense
POLITICAL WINDS: Support can shift
This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Please consult with a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
