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- JBL - Beat and upbeat on AI but shares fall. What's next?
JBL - Beat and upbeat on AI but shares fall. What's next?
Cheat Sheets presented by stocktwits
JABIL (JBL)
🏭🤖 Electronics Manufacturing Solutions & AI Infrastructure | Global Manufacturing Leader
Q4 FY25 Results | $8.3B Revenue, Beat by $800M, Strong AI Growth Momentum
💰 Market Cap: $24.2B | 🏭 Core Op Margin: 6.3% | 📈 Revenue: $8.3B Q4
👨💼 CEO Mike Dastoor | 📊 Core EPS: $3.29 | 💎 Free Cash Flow: $1.3B+
$210.93
📉 -$14.35 (-6.37%) Today
Current Price
Price Target Scenarios
18-Month Horizon (FY26 Targets)
$285.00
Bull Case (+35%)
AI Acceleration
Manufacturing Leader
📊 Valuation Calculation:
• FY26E Revenue: $32B × P/S: 0.85x = $285
🚀 Key Assumptions:
AI data center infrastructure dominance • $1.2B free cash flow momentum • Cloud & data center 25%+ growth • Margin expansion to 6%+ • Diversified manufacturing expansion • Strategic M&A execution
$250.00
Base Case (+19%)
Steady Growth
Market Position
📊 Valuation Calculation:
• FY26E Revenue: $30B × P/S: 0.75x = $250
⚖️ Key Assumptions:
Continued AI market growth • Stable automotive recovery • Healthcare & packaging expansion • 5.5% operating margins • Consistent free cash flow generation
$180.00
Bear Case (-15%)
Market Slowdown
Margin Pressure
📊 Valuation Calculation:
• FY26E Revenue: $26B × P/S: 0.6x = $180
🔻 Key Assumptions:
AI capex spending slowdown • Automotive market downturn • Supply chain disruptions • Margin compression • Competition intensification • Economic recession impact
Bottom Line for Retail Investors
🤖
AI Infrastructure Leader
Intelligent Infrastructure 51% growth, AI data center solutions, $500M U.S. investment, cloud & networking expertise, power & cooling systems
🏭
Diversified Manufacturing
Global reach 100+ sites, EMS & DMS segments, automotive, healthcare, industrial automation, supply chain expertise
💰
Cash Generation Power
$1.2B+ free cash flow, 5.4% operating margins, $1B share buyback program, strong balance sheet, capital allocation discipline
⚠️
Cyclical Risks
End-market volatility, geopolitical tensions, supply chain complexity, customer concentration, economic sensitivity
📊 Q4 FY25 "Exceeded Expectations" Results
$8.3B Revenue, Beat by $800M, $3.29 Core EPS, 6.3% Op Margin
💵
$8.3B
Q4 FY25 Revenue
Beat by $800M
📊
$3.29
Core EPS
Strong Beat
🤖
$3.7B
Intelligent Infra Rev
$400M Above Exp
💰
6.3%
Core Operating Margin
+50 bps YoY
📞 Key Q4 FY25 Earnings Highlights
🚀
All Segments Beat Expectations
Q4 revenue $8.3B exceeded midpoint by $800M, all three segments came in higher than anticipated, broad-based strength across portfolio
📈
Record Operating Performance
Core operating income $519M well above high end of range, 6.3% margin (+50 bps YoY), GAAP EPS $1.99, strong execution
💎
Exceptional Cash Generation
Q4 cash from operations $588M, full year $1.64B, adjusted free cash flow $1.3B+, inventory 69 days (5-day improvement), completed $1B buyback
🌐
AI Revenue Scale
AI-related revenue grew from $5B (FY24) to $9B (FY25), expect $11.2B in FY26 (+25% growth), new North Carolina facility coming online
📍 CEO Commentary: "We delivered strong performance, reaching approximately $8.3 billion in revenue, which exceeded the midpoint of our guidance by roughly $800 million. This better-than-expected growth was broad-based" - Mike Dastoor
🤖 AI Market Leadership: "AI-related revenue grew from $5B in FY24 to $9B in FY25, expecting $11.2B in FY26 (+25%). We're bumping up against capacity in the U.S." - highlighting unprecedented AI demand
📊 CFO Insights: "Core operating income for the quarter came in at $519 million, well above the high end of our expected range. Our core operating margin was 6.3%" - Greg Hebard
🔮 FY26 Outlook: Total company revenue expected $31.3B (+5%), core operating margin ~5.6%, core EPS $11, free cash flow >$1.3B, new North Carolina facility coming online
🎯 Strategic Vision: "Our strategy here is clear: win at the system level. Instead of treating servers, racks, switches, power, and cooling as separate silos, we design and deliver integrated systems" - differentiated approach
📊 Q4 FY25 Performance & Key Metrics
| Metric | Q4 FY25 | Performance |
|---|---|---|
| Total Revenue | $8.3B | Beat by $800M |
| Intelligent Infrastructure Revenue | $3.7B | $400M Above Expectations |
| Regulated Industries Revenue | $3.1B | Stronger Than Expected |
| Core Operating Income | $519M | 6.3% Margin |
| Core Diluted EPS | $3.29 | Strong Beat |
| GAAP Operating Income | $337M | GAAP EPS $1.99 |
| Adjusted Free Cash Flow (FY25) | $1.3B+ | Strong Generation |
Q4 Cash from Operations$588M
Inventory Days69 days (-5)
🎯 Management Commentary & Strategic Priorities
"We delivered strong performance, reaching approximately $8.3 billion in revenue, which exceeded the midpoint of our guidance by roughly $800 million" - CEO Mike Dastoor. Key strategic priorities: System-level AI integration approach, North Carolina facility (500K sq ft, 80MW capacity), automotive content-per-vehicle growth through ACES strategy, healthcare pipeline with GLP-1/biologics focus, Connected Living portfolio pruning for higher margins. FY26 guidance: Revenue $31.3B (+5%), Core EPS $11, 5.6% operating margin target, >$1.3B free cash flow. Strong positioning with 47% share repurchase completion, capacity expansion in liquid cooling, and 25,000+ robots across manufacturing network.
🚀 Why JBL Bulls Are Right
🤖
AI Infrastructure Scale & Capacity
AI revenue $9B→$11.2B (+25%), Q1 Intelligent Infra $3.67B (+47% YoY), new North Carolina facility 500K sq ft with 80MW power capacity, liquid cooling retrofits
📈
Segment Performance Excellence
Regulated Industries $3.1B (+3% YoY, 6.5% margin), Connected Living $1.4B (6.6% margin +210bps), all segments beat expectations, strong cost actions paying off
🏭
Global Manufacturing Scale
100+ global sites, diversified end markets, automotive recovery positioning, healthcare & packaging expansion, industrial automation growth
📈
Margin Expansion Potential
Operating leverage model, 5.4% margins with upside potential, efficiency improvements, automation benefits, premium AI solutions pricing
🐻 Why JBL Bears Have Valid Concerns
🌊
Cyclical Market Exposure
End-market volatility risks, automotive sector challenges, consumer electronics weakness, economic sensitivity, demand fluctuations
⚡
AI Capex Uncertainty
Potential AI spending slowdown, hyperscaler capex volatility, competition intensification, customer concentration risks, market maturation
🌐
Geopolitical Pressures
Supply chain disruptions, tariff impacts, China risks, regulatory changes, trade policy uncertainty, manufacturing cost inflation
💸
Margin Pressure Risks
Competitive pricing pressure, raw material cost inflation, labor shortages, operational complexity, customer pricing negotiations
This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Please consult with a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
