JPM 3Q25 - CEO says, economy resilient. Jobs slowing. What's next? Bull case $420. Bear case $240.

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October 14, 2025

JPMorgan Chase Investment Report - Q3 2025 Record Trading $8.9B & Beats Across All Lines

JPMORGAN CHASE & CO. (JPM)

🏦 America's Largest Bank | Rev +9% to $47.1B, Trading Record $8.9B, ROTCE 20%

Q3 2025: Fortress Balance Sheet Delivers Again | Jamie Dimon's Warning on Uncertainty

💰 Market Cap: $832B | 🏢 Employees: 317,160 | 🌍 Assets: $4.6T
👨‍💼 CEO Jamie Dimon | 🎯 Global Banking Leader | 💎 Equity: $360B
$302.17
📉 -$5.80 (-1.88%) Today
+49% YTD
Price Target Scenarios

18-Month Horizon (Mid-2027 Targets) - Based on Current Price $302.17

$420.00
Bull Case (+39%)
Deregulation + M&A Boom
Rate Normalization
📊 Valuation:
2027E EPS: $24 × 17.5x P/E = $420/share
🚀 What's Needed:
M&A boom continues • Trading elevated $35B+ annually • Deregulation cuts capital needs • NII $95-100B • IB fees +20%+ • Credit normalized $10-12B • ROTCE 21-22% • Market rerates to 17-18x P/E
$350.00
Base Case (+16%)
Steady Growth
Market Inline
📊 Valuation:
2027E EPS: $22 × 16x P/E = $350/share
⚖️ What's Needed:
Trading normalizes $32-34B • IB +10-15% • NII $92-95B • Credit $13-15B • Consumer mid-single digit • Wealth +8-10% • ROTCE 19-20% • Tariffs resolved • Market 15-16x P/E
$240.00
Bear Case (-21%)
Recession + Credit Losses
Trading Collapse
📊 Valuation:
2027E EPS: $16 × 15x P/E = $240/share
🔻 What Could Go Wrong:
Recession • Trading collapses to $20-24B • Credit losses surge to $20-25B • NII drops to $85-88B • IB down 20-30% • Consumer defaults spike • CRE losses • Tariffs = stagflation • M&A freeze • ROTCE 14-16% • Market derates to 12-14x
Bottom Line for Retail Investors
🏆
Beat Everything
EPS $5.07 vs $4.84 est • Revenue $47.1B vs $45.4B est • Trading record $8.9B • Fixed income +21% • Equity +33% • IB fees +16% • Consumer +24% • ROTCE 20% • Book value +9%
💎
Trump = Money Printer
Tariff chaos = trading explosion • Deregulation = M&A boom • Markets +25% • Fixed income beat by $300M • Equity beat by $300M • Wealth mgmt flying • Every Trump policy benefits JPM
📈
Capital Machine
$8B buyback Q3 • $6/year dividend • Raised 2025 NII to $95.8B • 2026 NII $95B • $360B equity • $4.6T assets • Fortress balance sheet printing cash
⚠️
Jamie's Cockroach Warning
$170M Tricolor fraud • Jamie: "One cockroach = more coming" • NFI credit "worse than expected" in downturn • Labor market "easy to imagine deterioration" • Stock at $302 vulnerable if recession hits

📊 Q3 2025: Crushed Everything, Record Trading, All Doubts Wrong

EPS $5.07 Beat • Revenue $47.1B Beat • Trading Record $8.9B • Fixed Income +21% • Equity +33% • IB +16% • Consumer +24% • ROTCE 20% • Returned $12.1B 💪

💰
$47.1B
Q3 2025 Revenue
+9% YoY
⚡
$8.9B
Trading Revenue
Q3 Record!
🎯
$5.07
EPS Q3
+16% YoY
🚀
20%
ROTCE
CET1 14.8% ⬇️30bps

📞 Key Q3 2025 Earnings Call Highlights

🎊
Beat Everything - Margins Expanded
Rev $47.1B beat by $1.7B. EPS $5.07 beat by $0.23. Markets $8.9B record. Fixed income beat by $300M. Equity beat by $300M. IB beat. Gross margin UP. Op margin UP. Jamie: "Each line of business performed well." PMI flat but growth all self-help. This is execution.
🚨
IB Pipeline Strong + Deal Flow Best in Years
Jeremy: "Pipeline robust, outlook upbeat." IPO market active. Processes kicked off early year continued through volatility. M&A: "Busiest summer in a long time." Acquisition finance back. IB fees $2.6B up 16%. "Moment of revived animal spirits driving demand." Big deals = JPM.
💎
Consumer Strong + Sapphire Record Year
CCB net income $5.0B up 24%. Jeremy: "Consumers resilient. Credit metrics stable, slightly better than expected." #1 retail deposit share 5th year. Sapphire Refresh = "best year ever for acquisitions." Added 400K checking accounts. Deposit inflection pushed out but franchise solid.
🔬
2026 Outlook + Basel Progress + AI Discipline
2026 NII ex-markets central case $95B. Q4 2025 NII ex-markets $23.5B. Card NCO rate lowered to 3.3% on favorable trends. But Jeremy warned expense consensus $100B "looks a little bit low" - medical +10% next year, comp pressure from PE/hedge funds. On Basel: "Direction of travel" positive, agencies working well, sense of urgency. Jamie frustrated with "woke signaling" vs real risk focus. On AI: doing "old fashioned expense discipline," constraining headcount, confident on productivity even if hard to measure. CET1 14.8% down 30bps as RWA grew.

📍 Jamie's Warning: "Each line performed well" but "heightened uncertainty from geopolitics, tariffs, elevated asset prices, sticky inflation risk." Labor market: "low hiring, low firing = high uncertainty. Easy to imagine world where labor deteriorates."

🚨 COCKROACH BOMBSHELL: Tricolor $170M fraud. Jamie: "When you see one cockroach, you're probably more. Fraud involved in bunch of these. Everyone forewarned." NFI credit "worse than expected" in downturn. RED FLAG.

💰 2026 Guidance: NII $95B but Jeremy warned expense consensus $100B "looks low." Medical +10% 2026, maybe +10% again 2027. Comp pressure from PE/hedge funds. Margins squeezed.

🏦 Deposits: Inflection "pushed out." Added 400K accounts but balance per customer flat. 15% target takes longer.

💸 Buybacks: Jeremy: "Don't love buying at these levels." $8B bought anyway. Translation: overvalued at $302.

💬 Critical Q&A Insights - What Analysts Are Worried About

🏦 NFI Risk (Mike Mayo): Jamie: NFI has "double leverage" component. "Expect worse than people think in downturn...don't know all underwriting standards...they're not all smart." Bull market for so long = credit problems hiding. "One cockroach = more."

💸 Deposits (McGratty): No aggressive pricing needed. Losing aggregate share (disciplined pricing) but GAINING in expansion markets. 15% goal = years away, not quarters.

📊 Expenses (Najarian): Consensus $100B 2026 "looks low." Medical +10% = $300M hit. Jamie: "Pay competitively or die." Labor 3-4%, investments ongoing. Likely $102-104B = margin squeeze if revenue slows.

🎯 Buybacks (Graseck): "Don't love at these levels" but bought $8B. Prefer lending vs buyback at $302. Message = overvalued.

🤖 AI (Poonawala): "Stay anchored in reality." Doing "old fashioned discipline" - constrain headcount. AI helps but don't expect massive saves near-term.

🚀 Why JPM Bulls Are Right
💎
Fortress Balance Sheet
$4.6T assets • $360B equity • ROTCE 20% • Book +9% • Prints cash, returns to shareholders, invests in growth, maintains fortress capital. Wins in ANY environment.
⚡
Trump = Money Printer
Tariff chaos = record trading • Deregulation = easier capitals • M&A boom • Markets at records = wealth mgmt flying • JPM has scale to win everything. Lasts years not quarters.
👑
Basel + IB Pipeline
Basel "direction positive, urgency high" = capital unlock • IB: "pipeline robust, outlook upbeat" • IPO active • M&A "busiest summer in years" • Acquisition finance back strong
🚀
Wealth Management Crushing
AWM: revenue $6.1B (+12%), margin 36% • Net inflows $72B/quarter • AUM $4.6T (+18%) • Client assets $6.8T (+20%) • Annuity revenue + elite margins + $6 dividend = solid floor
🐻 Why JPM Bears Have Valid Concerns
📉
Jamie's Cockroach Warning
Tricolor $170M fraud • "One cockroach = more" • NFI credit "worse than expected" in downturn • "Don't know all underwriting...not all smart" • Wholesale NCO rate been zero 10 years - NOT sustainable • If recession = UGLY
🏥
Labor Market Risk
"Low hiring, low firing = high uncertainty" • "Easy to imagine deterioration" • Resilient now but "fine now ≠ guaranteed forever" • Provisions already +9% • Next leg down = consumer defaults spike
💸
Expense Inflation
Consensus $100B "looks low" • Medical +10% 2026, +10% 2027 possible • Comp pressure from PE/hedge funds • Labor 3-4% baseline • If revenue slows but expenses don't = margin crush
⚠️
Management Says Overvalued
"Don't love buybacks at these levels" • Bought $8B anyway • Deposits stalling • 15% target years away • Analyst targets $322-330 = only 7-9% upside • If they don't like $302 = red flag

This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Please consult with a financial advisor before making investment decisions.