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- QS 3Q25 - First ever invoices. Cash through the end of the decade. Bull case $42. Bear case $5
QS 3Q25 - First ever invoices. Cash through the end of the decade. Bull case $42. Bear case $5
Cheat Sheets
QUANTUMSCAPE CORPORATION (QS)
🔋 First Customer Billings $12.8M | Ducati V21L Unveiled Sept 8 IAA Mobility | Cobra-Based QSC5 B1 Shipped (2025 Goal Complete) | GAAP Net Loss $105.8M | Adj EBITDA Loss $61.4M | OpEx $115M
12-Month Cash Runway Extension (Now Through End of Decade) | Raised $263.5M via ATM Program | Corning + Murata Ecosystem Partnerships | PowerCo Series Production "Before End of Decade" | Top-10 OEM "Active Engagement" | Eagle Line Equipment Installation On Track
💰 Market Cap: $8.1B | 🏢 800 Employees | 🌍 VW PowerCo Partnership
👨💼 CEO Siva Sivaram | 🎯 Pre-Revenue Stage | 🇺🇸 San Jose, CA
$14.97
📈 +$1.39 (+10.24%) After Hours
+196% YTD | Q3 2025 Post-Earnings Rally
Price Targets (12-18 Months)
Current Price: $14.97 (After Hours)
$42.00
Bull Case (+181%)
2027 Revenue: $150M+ | Revenue Multiple: 75x
Technology Leadership
🚀 Needs:
PowerCo delivers series production "before end of decade" • Ducati field testing validates performance • New Top-10 OEM converts to licensing deal • Cobra scales with Corning/Murata separator manufacturing • Customer billings accelerate beyond $12.8M baseline • Multiple OEM partnerships signed • Three revenue streams (collaboration, licensing, ecosystem) materialize at scale • Technology maintains performance edge
$22.00
Base Case (+47%)
2027 Revenue: $80M | Revenue Multiple: 60x
Steady Progress
⚖️ Needs:
PowerCo progresses toward production target • Ducati field testing completes successfully • Customer billings grow from $12.8M baseline • Cobra validated at scale with Corning/Murata • One additional OEM signs licensing deal • QSC5 B1 samples pass automotive qualification • Eagle Line installation completes • Cash runway through end of decade maintained • EBITDA loss $245M-$260M, CapEx $30M-$40M guidance met
$5.00
Bear Case (-67%)
2027 Revenue: $10M | Revenue Multiple: 30x
Commercialization Failure
⚠️ Risk:
Ducati field testing reveals reliability issues • B1 samples fail automotive qualification • PowerCo delays or reduces commitment • Cobra scaling encounters yield/quality problems • New OEM engagement stalls • Customer billings remain lumpy and inconsistent • Cash burn exceeds guidance • Manufacturing costs too high for commercial viability • Competition from Toyota, Samsung accelerates • Continuous dilution required above current projections
The TL;DR
💰
What Happened
FIRST BILLINGS: $12.8M customer billings (Kevin: "Total value of all invoices issued by QS"), first-ever invoices
DUCATI DEMO: September 8 IAA Mobility Munich: V21L motorcycle with QSC5 (Siva: "Seeing bike ride across stage was emotional moment")
B1 SHIPPED: Cobra-based QSC5 B1 samples shipped in Q3, completing 2025 goal
FINANCIALS: GAAP OpEx $115M, net loss $105.8M, Adj EBITDA loss $61.4M, EPS -$0.18
BALANCE SHEET: $1B liquidity, raised $263.5M ATM, cash runway "through end of decade"
GUIDANCE IMPROVED: EBITDA loss $245M-$260M (was $250M-$270M), CapEx $30M-$40M (was $45M-$65M)
DUCATI DEMO: September 8 IAA Mobility Munich: V21L motorcycle with QSC5 (Siva: "Seeing bike ride across stage was emotional moment")
B1 SHIPPED: Cobra-based QSC5 B1 samples shipped in Q3, completing 2025 goal
FINANCIALS: GAAP OpEx $115M, net loss $105.8M, Adj EBITDA loss $61.4M, EPS -$0.18
BALANCE SHEET: $1B liquidity, raised $263.5M ATM, cash runway "through end of decade"
GUIDANCE IMPROVED: EBITDA loss $245M-$260M (was $250M-$270M), CapEx $30M-$40M (was $45M-$65M)
📉
Why It Matters
Commercialization Inflection: First-ever customer invoices = validation of capital-light licensing model
Real-World Demo: Ducati V21L with QSC5 at IAA = moving beyond lab to field testing
Execution Consistency: 2/3 annual goals completed (Cobra baseline + B1 shipments), Eagle Line on track
Ecosystem Momentum: Corning + Murata partnerships = world-class separator manufacturing capability
Runway Extension: +12 months cash runway to end of decade = reduced near-term dilution pressure
Real-World Demo: Ducati V21L with QSC5 at IAA = moving beyond lab to field testing
Execution Consistency: 2/3 annual goals completed (Cobra baseline + B1 shipments), Eagle Line on track
Ecosystem Momentum: Corning + Murata partnerships = world-class separator manufacturing capability
Runway Extension: +12 months cash runway to end of decade = reduced near-term dilution pressure
🎯
Management Strategy
Four-Track Execution: Siva: (1) Ducati program (2) PowerCo relationship (3) Other customers (4) Ecosystem development
PowerCo Path: "Working toward automotive-grade standards with goal of series production car before end of decade"
OEM Expansion: Top-10 global OEM "active engagement" + JDA with existing customer in "first phase"
Three Revenue Streams: Kevin: Collaboration monetization, licensing royalties, ecosystem value sharing
Turnkey Ecosystem: Siva: "Make QS technology the clear choice" with partners handling separator manufacturing
PowerCo Path: "Working toward automotive-grade standards with goal of series production car before end of decade"
OEM Expansion: Top-10 global OEM "active engagement" + JDA with existing customer in "first phase"
Three Revenue Streams: Kevin: Collaboration monetization, licensing royalties, ecosystem value sharing
Turnkey Ecosystem: Siva: "Make QS technology the clear choice" with partners handling separator manufacturing
⚠️
Key Concerns
Still Pre-Revenue: Customer billings "not substitute for revenue under US GAAP" = licensing revenue years away
Long Timeline: PowerCo "before end of decade" = 4+ years, Siva won't detail OEM timelines ("let OEMs do announcement")
Proof Pending: Ducati demo emotional but field testing = real validation, B1 samples must pass automotive qual
VW Accounting: PowerCo payments create liability, value "accrues directly to shareholders' equity" not P&L
Dilution History: Raised $263.5M Q3, high burn rate $61.4M/quarter EBITDA loss continues
Long Timeline: PowerCo "before end of decade" = 4+ years, Siva won't detail OEM timelines ("let OEMs do announcement")
Proof Pending: Ducati demo emotional but field testing = real validation, B1 samples must pass automotive qual
VW Accounting: PowerCo payments create liability, value "accrues directly to shareholders' equity" not P&L
Dilution History: Raised $263.5M Q3, high burn rate $61.4M/quarter EBITDA loss continues
🐂 Bull Thesis
📈
Technology Inflection: Ducati Demo
Real-World Showcase: September 8 IAA Mobility Munich: V21L motorcycle with QSC5 cells, Siva: "Seeing bike ride across stage was emotional moment for all of us"
Low-Volume High-Impact: Siva: "Low-volume but high-visibility demonstration that allows us to put QSC5 technology into demanding real-world application"
Field Testing Next: "Now we'll be demonstrating our battery in the field and gathering as much data as possible from field testing" = major milestone toward commercialization
Low-Volume High-Impact: Siva: "Low-volume but high-visibility demonstration that allows us to put QSC5 technology into demanding real-world application"
Field Testing Next: "Now we'll be demonstrating our battery in the field and gathering as much data as possible from field testing" = major milestone toward commercialization
💰
First Customer Billings
Commercial Milestone: $12.8M invoiced in Q3 including VW PowerCo, Kevin: "Nice to have arrived at chapter where we're billing customers"
Three Revenue Streams: Kevin: "(1) Monetization of collaboration work (2) Licensing when customers producing cells (3) Value sharing with ecosystem partners"
PowerCo Expansion: Upgraded deal with up to $131M additional over 2 years = non-dilutive capital, invoiced PowerCo in Q3 under July deal
Three Revenue Streams: Kevin: "(1) Monetization of collaboration work (2) Licensing when customers producing cells (3) Value sharing with ecosystem partners"
PowerCo Expansion: Upgraded deal with up to $131M additional over 2 years = non-dilutive capital, invoiced PowerCo in Q3 under July deal
🎬
Ecosystem Building: Corning + Murata
World-Class Partners: Corning (Sept 30 announcement) + Murata, Siva: "Two of most world-renowned technical ceramics manufacturers as ecosystem partners"
Turnkey Solution: Siva: "Partners invest capital, handle separator production using Cobra, we want to make it as easy as possible for OEM customers to ramp production"
Dual Supply: Siva: "Opportunity is so large that it is good for us to have two suppliers" = redundancy, capacity, "continue to grow ecosystem further"
Turnkey Solution: Siva: "Partners invest capital, handle separator production using Cobra, we want to make it as easy as possible for OEM customers to ramp production"
Dual Supply: Siva: "Opportunity is so large that it is good for us to have two suppliers" = redundancy, capacity, "continue to grow ecosystem further"
💪
Manufacturing Progress + New OEM
B1 Samples Shipped: Cobra-based QSC5 B1 cells shipped in Q3, completing key 2025 goal, featured at IAA with Ducati
Eagle Line On Track: Siva: "Equipment for certain key assembly steps has already been installed on Eagle Line, goal remains on track" for year-end
Customer Expansion: JDA with existing customer in "first phase of development and commercialization engagement" + new Top-10 OEM in "active engagement"
Four-Track Strategy: Siva: Parallel execution of (1) Ducati program (2) PowerCo relationship (3) Other customers (4) Ecosystem development
Eagle Line On Track: Siva: "Equipment for certain key assembly steps has already been installed on Eagle Line, goal remains on track" for year-end
Customer Expansion: JDA with existing customer in "first phase of development and commercialization engagement" + new Top-10 OEM in "active engagement"
Four-Track Strategy: Siva: Parallel execution of (1) Ducati program (2) PowerCo relationship (3) Other customers (4) Ecosystem development
🐻 Bear Thesis
📉
Still Pre-Revenue, Years Away
Customer Billings ≠ Revenue: Kevin: "Metric is not substitute for revenue under US GAAP", collaboration payments not product sales
Years Away: PowerCo "before end of decade" = 4+ years minimum, licensing revenue dependent on customers ramping production at scale
Rally On Milestones: Stock up 10.2% after hours on Ducati demo and B1 shipments, but actual commercialization still years away
Years Away: PowerCo "before end of decade" = 4+ years minimum, licensing revenue dependent on customers ramping production at scale
Rally On Milestones: Stock up 10.2% after hours on Ducati demo and B1 shipments, but actual commercialization still years away
💸
Dilution Machine
Q3 ATM Raise: $263.5M raised "in advance of August 10 expiration of shelf registration" = had to dilute before window closed
High Burn: $61.4M adjusted EBITDA loss per quarter, GAAP OpEx $115M = ~$450M annual burn rate continues
Cash Runway Math: Kevin: "Cash runway extends through end of decade" but $1B / $450M burn = will need more capital before 2030
High Burn: $61.4M adjusted EBITDA loss per quarter, GAAP OpEx $115M = ~$450M annual burn rate continues
Cash Runway Math: Kevin: "Cash runway extends through end of decade" but $1B / $450M burn = will need more capital before 2030
🤖
Proof Remains Elusive
Ducati = Demo Not Production: Siva: "Seeing bike ride across stage was emotional" but admits "now we'll be demonstrating battery in field" = validation still pending
B1 Qualification Pending: Samples shipped but must pass automotive qualification standards = reliability, yield, cycle life all TBD
Cobra Unproven at Scale: Siva says Corning/Murata bring "deep expertise" but separator production ramping = execution risk, no volume commitments disclosed
B1 Qualification Pending: Samples shipped but must pass automotive qualification standards = reliability, yield, cycle life all TBD
Cobra Unproven at Scale: Siva says Corning/Murata bring "deep expertise" but separator production ramping = execution risk, no volume commitments disclosed
⏰
Competition + Technology Risk
Solid-State Race: Toyota, Samsung, others investing billions in solid-state = QS not alone in technology development
Customer Concentration: VW PowerCo = majority of story, new Top-10 OEM only in "active engagement", existing customer JDA in "first phase" = heavy VW dependence
VW Relationship Opacity: Siva: "As always, we let OEMs do announcement and we follow them" = can't talk about progress, timeline details controlled by partner
Economics Unclear: Kevin outlines three revenue streams but no guidance on licensing rates, ecosystem value share, or path to profitability
Customer Concentration: VW PowerCo = majority of story, new Top-10 OEM only in "active engagement", existing customer JDA in "first phase" = heavy VW dependence
VW Relationship Opacity: Siva: "As always, we let OEMs do announcement and we follow them" = can't talk about progress, timeline details controlled by partner
Economics Unclear: Kevin outlines three revenue streams but no guidance on licensing rates, ecosystem value share, or path to profitability
This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Please consult with a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
