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  • RACE - Capital Markets Day - Conservative guidance and EV rollout. What's next? Bull case $615. Bear case $310.

RACE - Capital Markets Day - Conservative guidance and EV rollout. What's next? Bull case $615. Bear case $310.

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October 09, 2025

Ferrari Investment Report - Capital Markets Day Oct 9, 2025 | 2030 Strategic Plan Revealed

FERRARI N.V. (RACE)

🏎️🏁 Ultimate Luxury Icon | Industry-Leading Margins, 2030 Vision Unveiled, Order Book Into 2027

CMD Oct 9, 2025 | €9B Revenue Target by 2030 | Ferrari Elettrica 4-Engine Tech | €7B Shareholder Returns

💰 Market Cap: $80.0B | 👥 Employees: 5,400+ | 🌍 Most Exclusive Luxury Brand
👨‍💼 CEO Benedetto Vigna | 🎯 Exclusivity & Innovation | 🏆 3x Le Mans Champion
$418.73
📉 -$60.48 (-12.62%) Post-CMD
Current Price
Price Target Scenarios

18-Month Horizon (2026 Targets)

$625.00
Bull Case (+49%)
Plan Execution
EV Success
📊 Valuation:
2026E EPS $12.00 × P/E 52x = $625
🚀 Assumptions:
Elettrica exceeds expectations • Market embraces 4-engine design • Personalization >19% • F80 drives mix • Order book extends 2028+ • F1 improves • China stabilizes • Lifestyle margins hit target • EBITDA 42%+ • FCF accelerates • Net cash unlocks buybacks
$515.00
Base Case (+23%)
Plan Delivered
40% Margins
📊 Valuation:
2026E EPS $11.56 × P/E 44.5x = $515
⚖️ Assumptions:
2030 plan delivered as presented • Revenue €9B (5% CAGR) • Elettrica launches late 2026 • EBITDA 40%, EBIT 30% • Personalization 19% • 4 models/yr • Order book healthy • €7B shareholder returns • China <10% stabilizes
$310.00
Bear Case (-26%)
Plan Misses
EV Disappointment
📊 Valuation:
2026E EPS $8.50 × P/E 36.5x = $310
🔻 Assumptions:
Elettrica disappoints (delays/tech issues) • 5% CAGR too optimistic • Recession hits ultra-wealthy • China deteriorates • Multiple compression • Tariffs >15% • Personalization <19% • F80 softer • Waitlist <20mo • Residual value concerns • Competition intensifies • EBITDA 36% • Market loses confidence
Bottom Line for Retail Investors
👑
Execution Track Record
10-yr: beat every plan • €6.5B capex • 41 cars • 883 patents • "Do what we say" delivered • 2025 exceeds 2026 year early • e-Vortex: 4mo proof of agility
🎯
Strategic Clarity
3 souls: Racing/Cars/Lifestyle • Mix 40/40/20 (ICE/Hybrid/EV) • Tech neutrality • More models, less volume • Icon <5%, Special 10%, Range >85% • "Festina lente"
📈
Catalysts
Elettrica 4-engine tech • F80 799 units • Paint shop 2027 • Tokyo/LA Tailor Made • London/NY stores 2026 • M-Tech 2029 • "At least" 40%/30% margins • €7B returns • F1 upside
⚠️
Risks
5% CAGR lower than 2022 • EV cut 40%→20% • Elettrica unproven • 40-50x P/E • Macro: recession, China weak, tariffs 15% • Volume minimal • Competition • 5-yr visibility

📊 Capital Markets Day Oct 9, 2025 "Ambitious 2030 Vision & 10-Year Success Story"

Q2 Beat • 40% EBITDA Margins • CMD Oct 9: €9B Revenue Target (5% CAGR) • Mix Now 40/40/20 (ICE/Hybrid/EV) • Ferrari Elettrica 4-Engine Tech Late 2026 • €7B Shareholder Returns • Order Book Into 2027

✅
€2.38
Q2 Diluted EPS
Beat by €0.09
💰
€1.787B
Q2 Net Revenue
+4.4% YoY (5.1% Const FX)
🎯
€8.80
FY2025 EPS Target
Raised Guidance
💵
€8.0B
FCF 2026-2030
Cumulative Target

📞 Key Q2 2025 & Capital Markets Day Highlights

🎊
10-Yr IPO Success
€6.5B capex • 41 new cars • Workforce 3K→6K • 883 patents • €4.7B to shareholders • 90K clients (+20%) • Order book into 2027
🚀
2030 Plan
Revenue €9B (5% CAGR) • EBITDA ≥€3.6B (40%+) • EBIT ≥€2.75B (30%+) • EPS ≥€11.50 • FCF €8B • Net cash before plan end
🔋
Elettrica Tech
Late 2026 • 4 independent engines • Full Active Corner • In-house: e-axle, inverter, battery • 3rd-gen suspension • Real sound • 2 manettinos
🎯
Mix Shift
2030: 40/40/20 (ICE/Hybrid/EV) • 4 models/yr • Paint shop 2027 • e-Vortex track (4mo!) • Tokyo/LA Tailor Made 2027

📍 Leadership: "We do what we say" - Vigna. "Festina lente" (make haste slowly) - guiding motto. Chairman John Elkann: largest shareholder, fully committed to uniqueness.

🎯 Three Souls: Racing (F1/WEC/Hypercell) • Sports Cars • Lifestyle. Inclusive (400M tifosi) & Exclusive (180K Ferraristi). "Ferrari Forever": 90%+ of 330K cars ever made still alive.

🏎️ Strategy: More models, less volume each. Icon/Supercar <5% • Special 10% • Range >85%. Waitlist 20-24mo. F80: 799 units. Personalization ~19%. Geography: EMEA+Americas >70%, China <10%.

🔮 Innovation: In-house: engines, e-axle, batteries. E-Cells Lab with Bologna Uni. Racing tech transfer. M-Tech hub 2029. Decarbonization: Scope 1&2 ≥90% cut, Scope 3 ≥25% cut.

🎤 Capital Markets Day Oct 9 Detailed Insights

📅
10-Year Success
€6.5B capex • 41 cars • 3K→6K workforce • 883 patents • €4.7B returned • Beat every plan • 2022-2026 done year early
⚡
Elettrica Tech
4 engines (1 per wheel) • Full Active Corner • Battery in chassis • In-house axle/inverter/battery • 3rd-gen suspension • 2 manettinos • Real sound • Silicon carbide • E-Cells Lab
🏗️
Infrastructure
e-building done 6mo early • Paint shop 2027 • e-Vortex: 4mo decision→completion • Tokyo/LA Tailor Made 2027 • London/NY stores 2026 • 40/40/20 mix flexibility
💼
Financials
Tariffs: 15% • Tax: 22%→24% • F1 cap + inflation • CapEx/DNA ~1:1 • 40% capex for post-2030 • Net cash before plan end

🎭 M-Tech Hub: Educational hub Maranello 2029 (100th anniversary Scuderia). Train engineers/technicians. Benefit entire Moto Valley.

🌊 Hypercell: New ocean racing dimension. Cross-pollination with automotive. Innovation coming to sports cars "very soon."

👥 Clients: 90K active (+20%) • 32K+ new • 180K Ferraristi (0.2% of UHNW) • 400M tifosi • Lifestyle: 50%+ to Ferraristi, 80%+ new clients, 35%+ women.

🏁 Racing: F1 must improve. WEC: 3 Le Mans wins (trophy kept). Tech transfer: F1 (V6, e-engine, battery), WEC (aero, braking, carbon chassis).

🚀 Why RACE Bulls Are Right
👑
Brand Moat
75+ yr heritage • 90%+ cars still alive • 20-24mo waitlist • 70%+ repeat buyers • F1/WEC dominance • Avg price >€480K • Pricing power • 10-yr track record flawless
💰
Profitability
40% EBITDA (highest in auto) • 30%+ EBIT • Personalization 19% (high margin) • Lifestyle growing • CapEx <12% • FCF €8B (2026-30) • Cash conversion >50% • e-Vortex: 4mo build
🎯
2030 Vision
€9B prudent from €7B base • Beat 2026 targets year early • Order book into 2027 • Elettrica 4-engine revolution • 40/40/20 flexibility • Agility embedded • "At least" 40%/30% margins
💎
Shareholder Returns
Dividend 40% • €3.5B buyback • €3.5B dividends • €7B total (~85% FCF) • Net cash before plan end • Chairman largest shareholder aligned • M-Tech hub 2029
🐻 Why RACE Bears Have Valid Concerns
💸
Valuation
40-50x P/E premium • $80B mkt cap vulnerable • 5% CAGR lower than 2022 plan • High base harder comps • Personalization down to 19% • Limited volume growth • High expectations
🔋
EV Risk
Elettrica late 2026 (no delay room) • Already cut 40%→20% • 4-engine unproven • Residual value concerns • Customer acceptance uncertain • Price TBD • Battery/supply chain risks
🌍
Macro
Recession risk rising • Ultra-wealthy not immune • China <10% weak • Tariffs 15% confirmed • Europe stagnation • 2030 visibility challenging (5 yrs) • FX headwinds
⚠️
Execution
F1 must improve • Paint shop 2027 complex • Supply chain risks • F80 critical (799 units) • Scarcity mgmt (20-24mo waitlist) • Competition (Lambo, McLaren, Rimac)

This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Please consult with a financial advisor before making investment decisions.