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- SFIX F4Q25 - Financials better. Customers still declining. What's next?
SFIX F4Q25 - Financials better. Customers still declining. What's next?
Cheat Sheets presented by stocktwits
STITCH FIX (SFIX)
👗🤖 AI-Powered Personal Styling | Leading Online Fashion Service
Q4 2025 Results | $311.2M Revenue, +4.4% Growth, Second Consecutive Quarter
💰 Market Cap: $725M | ⚡ Active Clients: 2.3M | 🚀 Revenue Growth: +4.4% YoY (Adj)
👨💼 CEO Matt Baer | 💳 RPAC: $549 | 🎯 43.6% Gross Margin
$5.46
📉 -$0.18 (-3.19%) Today
Current Price
Price Target Scenarios
18-Month Horizon (2026 Targets)
$15.00
Bull Case (+175%)
AI Revolution
Client Growth
📊 Valuation Calculation:
• 2026E Revenue: $1.9B × P/S: 1.9x = $15.00
🚀 Key Assumptions:
FY26 growth accelerates • Q3 net client adds inflection • AI innovations drive engagement • GenAI Vision breakthrough • $650+ RPAC • Market share gains
$7.50
Base Case (+37%)
Steady Recovery
Market Stabilization
📊 Valuation Calculation:
• 2026E Revenue: $1.4B × P/S: 1.4x = $7.50
⚖️ Key Assumptions:
Client base stabilizes • Continued RPAC growth • Cost optimization • Profitability achieved • Fashion trends favorable
$3.00
Bear Case (-45%)
Client Exodus
Competition Intensifies
📊 Valuation Calculation:
• 2026E Revenue: $900M × P/S: 0.8x = $3.00
🔻 Key Assumptions:
Client decline accelerates • Amazon/retail giants dominate • Subscription fatigue • Economic recession • Inventory challenges persist
Bottom Line for Retail Investors
🤖
GenAI Innovation Leader
AI Style Assistant, Vision feature with personalized imagery, Stylist Connect platform, billions of client insights
📈
Growth Phase Activated
4.4% Q4 growth, second consecutive quarter, FY26 full-year growth guidance, client inflection in Q3
💪
Operational Excellence
$500M SG&A reduction over 3 years, highest contribution margin in decade, 90-day LTVs at 3-year highs
⚠️
Client Base Pressure
Active clients still declining -7.9% YoY, execution risk on AI features, macro headwinds for holidays
📈 Q4 2025 "Accelerating Growth" Results
$311.2M Revenue, +4.4% Growth (Adj), Second Consecutive Quarter, Market Share Gains
💵
$311.2M
Q4 2025 Revenue
+4.4% YoY (Adj)
📊
$8.7M
Adj EBITDA
2.8% Margin
👥
2.3M
Active Clients
-7.9% YoY
⚡
$549
RPAC
+3.0% YoY
📞 Key Q4 2025 Earnings Highlights
🚀
Growth Acceleration
4.4% revenue growth (adj), second consecutive quarter, market share gains, AOV +12% YoY (8th straight quarter)
🤖
GenAI Innovations
AI Style Assistant rollout, Vision feature with GenAI imagery, Stylist Connect platform launched
🏗️
Product Expansion
50+ new brands added (Madewell, Birkenstock, Abercrombie), family accounts, footwear growth 35%+
📊
Operational Excellence
Highest contribution margin in decade, 90-day client LTVs at 3-year highs, $500M SG&A reduction over 3 years
📍 Strategic Theme: "Growth Phase" - Full-year revenue growth for first time since FY21, Q3 client net adds inflection point
💰 Operational Excellence: Highest contribution margin in decade, 43.6% gross margin, $49.1M full-year Adj EBITDA (3.9%)
🔮 FY26 Guidance: $1.28-1.33B revenue (first full-year growth since FY21), $30-45M Adj EBITDA, Q1 $333-338M revenue
📊 Q4 2025 Performance & Key Metrics
| Metric | Q4 2025 | Performance |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $311.2M | +4.4% YoY (Adj) |
| Adj EBITDA | $8.7M | 2.8% Margin |
| Gross Margin | 43.6% | -100bps YoY |
| AOV Growth | +12% | 8th Consecutive Quarter |
Cash & Investments$243M
FY25 Free Cash Flow$9.3M
🎯 FY26 Guidance & Strategic Focus
"We closed out fiscal year 2025 with a strong Q4, delivering 4.4% adjusted revenue growth... marked our second consecutive quarter of revenue growth. We once again gained market share in the U.S. apparel market this quarter." - CEO Matt Baer. FY26 guidance: $1.28-1.33B revenue (first full-year growth since FY21), $30-45M Adj EBITDA. Q3 client net adds inflection expected.
🚀 Why SFIX Bulls Are Right
🤖
GenAI Leadership
AI Style Assistant, Vision feature, Stylist Connect platform, billions of client insights, proprietary data moat
📈
Growth Inflection
FY26 full-year growth guidance, Q3 client net adds inflection, AOV growth 8 consecutive quarters, market share gains
🏪
Brand Expansion
50+ new brands added, Madewell/Birkenstock partnerships, family accounts, footwear growth 35%+
💪
Operational Scale
$500M SG&A reduction over 3 years, highest contribution margin in decade, zero debt, positive FCF
🐻 Why SFIX Bears Have Valid Concerns
⚠️
Client Decline
10.6% YoY active client drop, customer acquisition challenges, retention issues persist
📉
Competition Intensifying
Amazon, retailers entering space, subscription model fatigue, direct brand competition
🔧
Profitability Challenges
Still unprofitable, margin pressure from lower product margins, scale economics not achieved
🌍
Market Headwinds
Consumer spending pressure, tariff impact concerns, fashion trend sensitivity, economic uncertainty
This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Please consult with a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
