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- TSLA 3Q25 - FSD and surgeon robots to save the day? Bull case $650 Bear case $280
TSLA 3Q25 - FSD and surgeon robots to save the day? Bull case $650 Bear case $280
Cheat Sheets
TESLA, INC. (TSLA)
📊 Record Deliveries 497K (+All Regions) | Revenue $28.1B (+12% YoY Beat) | Auto Margin 15.4% (↑ from 15%) | Energy: Record Everything | Robotaxi Live Austin/Bay Area
FSD v14 Live | China +33% | APAC +29% | NA +28% | EMEA +25% | Energy 12.5 GWh Record | Auto Rev +29% Sequential | Optimus v3 Q1 | MegaPack 3 Unveiled
💰 Market Cap: $1.46T | 🏢 125K+ Employees | 🌍 Global Operations
👨💼 CEO Elon Musk | 🎯 10th Most Valuable Company | 🇺🇸 Austin, TX
$422.97
📉 -$16.00 (-3.64%) After Hours
+9% YTD | Q3 2025 Post-Earnings Sell-Off
Price Targets (12-18 Months)
Current Price: $422.97 (After Hours)
$650.00
Bull Case (+54%)
2027 EPS: $7.50 | P/E: 87x
Robotaxi & FSD Breakthrough
🚀 Needs:
FSD v14 adoption "shockwave" hits - millions activate software update • Musk "confident expanding production" with FSD clarity • Robotaxi scales from 2 to 8-10 metros by EOY • Optimus v3 Q1 = "won't seem like robot" + surgeon capability • Mission: "Sustainable Abundance" = no poverty • MegaPack 4 with 35kV output = no substation needed • Energy doubles US grid without new plants • New Model Y variants sustain momentum • Production ramps "as fast as reasonably can"
$480.00
Base Case (+13%)
2027 EPS: $4.80 | P/E: 100x
Steady Execution
⚖️ Needs:
Regional strength holds (China +33%, APAC +29%, NA +28%, EMEA +25%) • Auto margins climb from 15.4% via cost cuts + volume • Energy sustains record deployments despite China tariffs • FSD adoption edges up from 12% with v14 • Robotaxi expands gradually in Austin/Bay Area • China/EMEA approvals secured for FSD • Model Y momentum continues ("year of the Y") • MegaPack 3 drives energy growth • Optimus v3 Q1 impresses$280.00
Bear Case (-34%)
2027 EPS: $2.80 | P/E: 100x
Demand Collapse
⚠️ Risk:
Post-tax-credit demand crater • Margins compress below 15% • FSD stuck at 12% adoption • Musk governance meltdown: demands "mid-twenties" voting or no "robot army" • Nov 6 vote fails = AI/Optimus leaves Tesla • ISS/Glass Lewis "corporate terrorists" win • China/EMEA FSD approvals never come • Energy China tariffs crush margins • Optimus production slips past 2025 • Regional growth (+33%/29%/28%/25%) unsustainable • Robotaxi expansion stalls at 2 marketsThe TL;DR
💰
What Happened
DELIVERIES: 497K record, ALL regions up (China +33%, APAC +29%, NA +28%, EMEA +25%)
REVENUE: $28.1B (+12% YoY) vs $26.37B est - BEAT, first growth in 3 quarters
AUTO: +29% sequential revenue, margins 15.4% ex-credits (up from 15%)
ENERGY: Record deployments, profit, margins - all-time highs
ROBOTAXI: Live Austin + Bay Area, expanded 3x already
REVENUE: $28.1B (+12% YoY) vs $26.37B est - BEAT, first growth in 3 quarters
AUTO: +29% sequential revenue, margins 15.4% ex-credits (up from 15%)
ENERGY: Record deployments, profit, margins - all-time highs
ROBOTAXI: Live Austin + Bay Area, expanded 3x already
📉
Why It Matters
BROAD STRENGTH: ALL regions up = demand working despite competition
FSD CLARITY: Musk confident to expand production after FSD breakthrough
ENERGY BEAST: Record everything = diversification delivering
ROBOTAXI EDGE: 3x expansion in Austin, cars "blend in" vs competitors with sensors
PRODUCTION: Expanding "as fast as reasonably can" with FSD confidence
FSD CLARITY: Musk confident to expand production after FSD breakthrough
ENERGY BEAST: Record everything = diversification delivering
ROBOTAXI EDGE: 3x expansion in Austin, cars "blend in" vs competitors with sensors
PRODUCTION: Expanding "as fast as reasonably can" with FSD confidence
🎯
Management Strategy
AI LEADER: "Tesla is the leader in real world AI. No one can do what we can do"
"SHOCKWAVE": Millions of cars become FSD with software update
MISSION: "Sustainable Abundance" - no poverty, finest medical care for all
OPTIMUS: v3 Q1, million units by end 2025, "biggest product of all time"
GRID: Batteries double US energy without new plants, MegaPack 4 = 35kV direct
"SHOCKWAVE": Millions of cars become FSD with software update
MISSION: "Sustainable Abundance" - no poverty, finest medical care for all
OPTIMUS: v3 Q1, million units by end 2025, "biggest product of all time"
GRID: Batteries double US energy without new plants, MegaPack 4 = 35kV direct
⚠️
Key Concerns
GOVERNANCE NUKE: Musk demands "mid-twenties" voting or no "robot army", Nov 6 vote critical
FSD FAIL: Only 12% adoption despite v14 and years available
CHINA BLOCKED: No FSD approval in China/EMEA, no timeline
TARIFF BOMB: ALL energy sales from China, "bigger tariff impact"
ISS WAR: "Corporate terrorists" recommend no, passive funds control risk
FSD FAIL: Only 12% adoption despite v14 and years available
CHINA BLOCKED: No FSD approval in China/EMEA, no timeline
TARIFF BOMB: ALL energy sales from China, "bigger tariff impact"
ISS WAR: "Corporate terrorists" recommend no, passive funds control risk
🐂 Bull Thesis
📈
Energy Business Breakout
RECORDS: Deployments, profit, margins - all ATH in Q3
GRID DOUBLE: US has 1TW capacity, 0.5TW avg use - batteries double output without new plants
MEGAPACK: v3 unveiled, v4 = 35kV direct (no substation), "greatly improves deployment"
TAM: Power plants take forever to build + permitting hell = batteries win, massive opportunity
MARGINS: High-margin cushion vs auto, offsets China sourcing tariff risk
GRID DOUBLE: US has 1TW capacity, 0.5TW avg use - batteries double output without new plants
MEGAPACK: v3 unveiled, v4 = 35kV direct (no substation), "greatly improves deployment"
TAM: Power plants take forever to build + permitting hell = batteries win, massive opportunity
MARGINS: High-margin cushion vs auto, offsets China sourcing tariff risk
💰
Autonomy Is The Prize
CLARITY: "I feel like we've got clarity" on unsupervised FSD - now expanding production
"SHOCKWAVE": Millions of cars become FSD via software, "couple million a year" production
AI LEADER: "No one can do what we can do" - "highest intelligence density in the car"
ROBOTAXI: Austin + Bay Area live, 3x expansion already, cars "blend in" = edge vs competitors
v14 LIVE: Anyone in US gets it by selecting "advanced software" - reactions "quite amazed"
"SHOCKWAVE": Millions of cars become FSD via software, "couple million a year" production
AI LEADER: "No one can do what we can do" - "highest intelligence density in the car"
ROBOTAXI: Austin + Bay Area live, 3x expansion already, cars "blend in" = edge vs competitors
v14 LIVE: Anyone in US gets it by selecting "advanced software" - reactions "quite amazed"
🎬
Volume Growth Pathway
REGIONAL BEAST: ALL up sequential - China +33%, APAC +29%, NA +28%, EMEA +25%
MODEL Y: "2025 year of the Y" - new variants (Standard, Long Wheelbase, Performance) working
CONFIDENCE: "Continued customer confidence in products" = demand holding vs competition
MARGINS UP: 15.4% from 15% via material costs + fixed cost absorption
SCALING: "Couple million a year" + expanding max speed with FSD clarity
MODEL Y: "2025 year of the Y" - new variants (Standard, Long Wheelbase, Performance) working
CONFIDENCE: "Continued customer confidence in products" = demand holding vs competition
MARGINS UP: 15.4% from 15% via material costs + fixed cost absorption
SCALING: "Couple million a year" + expanding max speed with FSD clarity
💪
Balance Sheet Fortress + FCF
CASH: $41.6B = massive war chest for AI, Optimus, energy
FCF: Record Q3 free cash flow despite investments
OPTIMUS: "Biggest product of all time" - v3 Q1 = "person in robot suit" + surgeon skills
ROADMAP: 1M units end 2025 → 10M (v4) → 50-100M (v5)
MISSION: "Sustainable Abundance" - no poverty, medical care for all
AI TRANSFER: "Real world intelligence from car transfers to Optimus"
FCF: Record Q3 free cash flow despite investments
OPTIMUS: "Biggest product of all time" - v3 Q1 = "person in robot suit" + surgeon skills
ROADMAP: 1M units end 2025 → 10M (v4) → 50-100M (v5)
MISSION: "Sustainable Abundance" - no poverty, medical care for all
AI TRANSFER: "Real world intelligence from car transfers to Optimus"
🐻 Bear Thesis
📉
Tax Credit Demand Cliff
NUCLEAR THREAT: Musk wants "mid-twenties" voting: "Won't build robot army and get ousted"
NOV 6 ARMAGEDDON: ISS/Glass Lewis say no - rejection = AI/Optimus leaves Tesla?
INDEX CONTROL: Passive funds vote ISS = "extremely disastrous consequences"
NO FIX: Can't create supervoting stock post-IPO like Google/Meta = permanent vulnerability
DISTRACTION: Governance fight taking focus, execution risk if demands not met
NOV 6 ARMAGEDDON: ISS/Glass Lewis say no - rejection = AI/Optimus leaves Tesla?
INDEX CONTROL: Passive funds vote ISS = "extremely disastrous consequences"
NO FIX: Can't create supervoting stock post-IPO like Google/Meta = permanent vulnerability
DISTRACTION: Governance fight taking focus, execution risk if demands not met
💸
Margin Compression Accelerating
FRAGILE: 15.4% from 15% only due to volume = no pricing power
VOLUME TRAP: Need continuous growth for margins - demand softness = collapse
CHINA BOMB: ALL energy sales from China, "bigger tariff impact" = major risk
COMMODITY RISK: Material cost gains cited but prices volatile = could reverse
CREDIT FADE: Regulatory credits down despite "new contracts" = unsustainable cushion
VOLUME TRAP: Need continuous growth for margins - demand softness = collapse
CHINA BOMB: ALL energy sales from China, "bigger tariff impact" = major risk
COMMODITY RISK: Material cost gains cited but prices volatile = could reverse
CREDIT FADE: Regulatory credits down despite "new contracts" = unsustainable cushion
🤖
FSD/Robotaxi Vaporware Risk
12% FAIL: Only 12% pay for FSD despite v14 + "anyone can get it" = monetization dead
LOCKED OUT: China/EMEA still "working with regulators" - no timeline, huge markets blocked
ROBOTAXI CRAWL: Only 2 markets (Austin, Bay Area), 8-10 metros by EOY looking tough
SHOCKWAVE MYTH: Years of promises, millions autonomy-capable, yet 12% paying
REGULATORY WALL: Unsupervised FSD = massive hurdles despite Musk confidence
LOCKED OUT: China/EMEA still "working with regulators" - no timeline, huge markets blocked
ROBOTAXI CRAWL: Only 2 markets (Austin, Bay Area), 8-10 metros by EOY looking tough
SHOCKWAVE MYTH: Years of promises, millions autonomy-capable, yet 12% paying
REGULATORY WALL: Unsupervised FSD = massive hurdles despite Musk confidence
⏰
Brand & Execution Deterioration
OPTIMUS HYPE: 1M production end 2025 but "hardware not frozen even after start" = chaos
ROLLING CHANGES: "Continued iteration" post-production = quality/scaling hell
10K ITEMS: "Difficult to make parts discovered late" = ramp crawl inevitable
HAND PROBLEM: Dexterity acknowledged as hard, yet v3 in Q1 = aggressive for unsolved issues
REGIONAL FADE: +33%/29%/28%/25% may not hold without Model Y refresh cycle
CAPEX SURGE: Expanding "max speed" with uncertain demand = cash burn risk
ROLLING CHANGES: "Continued iteration" post-production = quality/scaling hell
10K ITEMS: "Difficult to make parts discovered late" = ramp crawl inevitable
HAND PROBLEM: Dexterity acknowledged as hard, yet v3 in Q1 = aggressive for unsolved issues
REGIONAL FADE: +33%/29%/28%/25% may not hold without Model Y refresh cycle
CAPEX SURGE: Expanding "max speed" with uncertain demand = cash burn risk
This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Please consult with a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
