UAMY - End of Q update. Lots of news and moving parts. Bull case $25

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October 09, 2025

United States Antimony - Q2 Earnings: Revenue Exploded 160%, Defense Contract $245M, Stock +1,400% YTD

UNITED STATES ANTIMONY (UAMY)

⚔️🇺🇸 Critical Minerals Play | Only Antimony Smelters in North America, $245M Defense Contract, Stock Ripped +1,400%

Q2 2025 | Revenue $10.5M (+160% H1 YoY), Antimony Prices Surged $6→$22/lb, Gross Profit +183%, Market Went Absolutely Insane

💰 Market Cap: $1.29B | 🏢 Employees: 62 | 📊 Debt/Equity: 0.03 (Almost None)
👨‍💼 CEO Gary C. Evans | 🎯 Only US Antimony Producer | 🏆 $64M Cash After Oct Raise
$10.86
📈 +$0.94 (+9.5%) Today | +$10.12 (+1,448%) YTD
Current Price (Oct 9)
Price Target Scenarios

18-Month Price Targets (Stock at $10.86 Today)

$25.00
Bull Case (+130%)
Full Integration
Alaska Delivers
📊 Valuation:
• 2026E EPS: $1.20 × P/E: 20.8x = $25.00
🚀 What Needs To Happen:
Alaska mines online late 2025 • Montana expansion done • Full vertical integration • Antimony stays $20+/lb • Defense contract ramps up • Zeolite margins improve • $100M revenue 2026 • Government funding secured • China supply restricted • More defense contracts
$15.00
Base Case (+38%)
Steady Execution
Plan Works
📊 Valuation:
• 2026E EPS: $0.75 × P/E: 20.0x = $15.00
⚖️ What Needs To Happen:
Q2 momentum continues • Revenue hits $40-50M for 2025 • Alaska online Q1 2026 (minor delays OK) • Defense revenue steady • Antimony $15-20/lb • Capacity increases as planned • Zeolite stays profitable • Some gov support • Margins 25-30% • Profitable by 2026
$4.00
Bear Case (-63%)
Alaska Fails
Prices Crater
📊 Valuation:
• 2026E EPS: -$0.20 × P/E: N/A = $4.00 (Asset Value)
🔻 What Goes Wrong:
Alaska permitting nightmare • Environmental opposition wins • Antimony crashes to $8/lb • China floods market • Defense contract delayed • Stuck at 50% capacity • Zeolite struggles • Need more capital = dilution • Operating losses continue • Competition emerges • Recession kills demand
TL;DR - What You Need To Know
🇺🇸
They're Dominating
Only 2 operating antimony smelters in North America. Antimony = critical for defense (ammo, night vision, body armor). $245M Pentagon contract. First $10M order received Sept 30. US was 100% import-dependent from China. Government desperately needs domestic supply. UAMY is the only option.
💎
The China Factor
China controls 65% of global antimony and restricted exports in 2024-25. Prices went $5.31 to $22/lb in under a year. Supply squeeze could last years. UAMY positioned to be first fully integrated antimony company OUTSIDE China by end 2025.
📈
Why Bulls Are Buying
Revenue +160% H1 2025. Gross profit +183%. Prices tripled. $64M cash, zero debt. Alaska late 2025. Montana expanding (Gov at groundbreaking). First $10M Pentagon order Sept 30. Institutional 24%. CEO bought $613K stock. Fox Business Oct 8. Smart money bullish (66% call options).
⚠️
What Could Wreck This
Still unprofitable Q2. Alaska permitting could drag forever. Environmental opposition. Stock up +1,400% YTD - huge pullback risk. Antimony could crash if China releases supply. Tiny company (62 employees). Execution risk massive. Only 50% capacity. Zeolite meh.

🔥 BREAKING: Last 10 Days

📺 Oct 8: CEO on Fox Business - Alaska permits approved, defense contract rolling out.

💰 Oct 6-7: Raised $26.25M at $7.50. Cash now $64M, debt basically zero. Stock ripped to $10.86.

⚔️ Sept 30: First $10M Pentagon order received. 315,000 lbs antimony ingots. Revenue starting NOW.

👨‍💼 Sept 30: CEO bought $613K of stock. Insider buying = bullish.

🏭 Sept 25: Montana Governor at Thompson Falls groundbreaking. State backing expansion.

📊 Q2 2025 Results: Why The Stock Went Absolutely Insane

UAMY crushed it. H1 revenue up 160% to $17.5M. Gross profit +183% to $5.2M. Net income positive ($728K vs loss). Antimony prices $6→$22/lb thanks to China export ban. Pentagon gave them $245M contract. Stock: $0.74→$10+ = up 1,400%.

✅
$0.00
Q2 EPS
Missed $0.03 But Beat Rev
💰
$17.5M
H1 2025 Revenue
+160% YoY Explosion
🏆
$245M
Defense Contract
5-Year Pentagon Deal
📈
$22/lb
Antimony Price
Up From $6/lb YoY

📞 Key Q2 2025 Earnings Highlights

🚀
Revenue Growth Is Insane
H1 2025: $17.5M (+160% YoY). Antimony biz +203%. Prices went $6→$22/lb. Q2 $10.5M beat estimates. Guiding $40-50M FY2025, $100M FY2026. Explosive growth from price surge + volume increases.
⚔️
Pentagon Gives Them $245M
Sept 2025: Defense Logistics Agency awarded sole-source 5-year contract worth $245M to supply antimony ingots for National Defense Stockpile. First $10M order already received. Recurring, predictable gov revenue. Validates strategic importance.
🏭
Becoming Vertically Integrated
Expanding from smelting to mining + smelting. Acquired properties in Montana, Alaska (30K+ acres), and Ontario (tungsten). Alaska targeting late 2025. First fully integrated antimony company OUTSIDE China. Currently 50% capacity but ramping fast.
💪
Balance Sheet Is Strong Now
$64M cash after Oct raise ($26.25M at $7.50). Debt basically zero (0.03). Gross margin 25.9% improving. Still unprofitable but path clear as volume ramps. Institutional 24%. CEO bought $613K Sept.

📍 What The CEO Said: "UAMY will be first fully integrated antimony company outside China in 2025." Translation: they'll control whole supply chain in the West. Emphasized critical mineral status and national security. Pentagon contract validates everything.

🎯 China Situation: China restricted antimony exports 2024-25. Controls 65% global production. Prices $5.31→$22/lb in under a year. US was 100% import-dependent. UAMY positioned to capitalize for years. Gov likely providing more support (grants, loans, contracts).

🏔️ Alaska Wild Card: 30K+ acres with historical high-grade deposits. Permitting slow (environmental opposition, delays). Targeting late 2025 production. If Alaska delivers = game changer. If delayed another year = stock tanks.

🔮 What's Next: FY2025 guidance: $40-50M. FY2026 guidance: $100M. First $10M Pentagon order received Sept 30 - defense revenue NOW. Alaska late 2025 (CEO confirmed permits on Fox Oct 8). Montana expanding (Gov support). Thompson Falls groundbreaking Sept 25. Suppliers 1→3+. Zeolite margins improving. Gov funding talks ongoing. Profitable 2026 if execution works. BIG: Smart money piling in - 66% bullish options ($618K calls vs $71K puts). Institutional 24% and climbing.

🚀 Why UAMY Bulls Are Right
🇺🇸
National Security = Guaranteed Revenue (ALREADY FLOWING)
Pentagon gave $245M over 5 years AND first $10M order received Sept 30. Real defense revenue NOW, not "someday." Antimony critical for defense (ammo, night vision, missiles). US 100% import-dependent. Gov NEEDS domestic supplier. UAMY only option with operating smelters. More contracts coming. Fox Business Oct 8 = serious attention. Strategic necessity.
🇨🇳
China Handed Them A Gift
China restricting antimony = best thing for UAMY. Prices tripled overnight. US companies desperate for non-Chinese sources. Supply constraint could last YEARS. UAMY becoming first vertically integrated antimony company outside China. They'll own Western market.
⛏️
Alaska Could Be MASSIVE
30K+ acres with historical high-grade antimony. If permitting clears and production starts late 2025, revenue impact is enormous. Control mining AND processing = vertical integration = higher margins. Infrastructure exists (roads, rail). Material to Montana smelters by 2026.
💰
Revenue Growth Is Explosive + Smart Money Piling In
H1 2025: $17.5M (+160%). FY2025: $40-50M. FY2026: $100M. Going from $8M run rate 2024 to potentially $100M 2026. If margins hit 20%, that's $20M net. On $1.3B market cap = cheap if execution works. Institutional 24%. CEO bought $613K Sept 30. Unusual options: 66% bullish, $618K calls. When insiders + smart money buy, pay attention.
🐻 Why UAMY Bears Have Valid Concerns
📉
Stock Went Parabolic (+1,400%)
Stock up +1,400% YTD ($0.74→$10+). That's parabolic. All good news might be priced in. Any stumble (Alaska delay, price drop, contract pushback) = could crater 50-70% overnight. Lots of retail at $8-10 who'll panic sell. Volatility extreme.
🏔️
Alaska Permitting Is A Nightmare
Environmental groups fighting. Permitting delays already pushed timelines. "Public opposition" in earnings calls. Alaska mining = terrible track record of delays and overruns. If stuck 1-2 more years (very possible), growth story dies. Stock massacred.
💸
Still Losing Money Operationally
Despite revenue surge, still unprofitable. Operating costs $2.3M→$4.8M H1 2025 (hires). Net margin negative. Gross margin only 25.9%. Profitability needs volume up + costs flat. If antimony drops or volumes stall, losses for years. Dilution risk if need capital.
⚠️
Antimony Prices Could Crater
What if China floods market? Prices $5→$22 but could crash to $10-12 just as fast. Whole bull thesis = sustained high prices. Zeolite mediocre (almost nothing to profit). Execution risk massive with 62-person company trying vertical integration.

This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Please consult with a financial advisor before making investment decisions.