💰 Market Cap: $201B | 🏢 31K Employees | 🌍 Global Platform

👨‍💼 CEO Dara Khosrowshahi | 🎯 AI & Autonomy Strategy | 🇺🇸 San Francisco, CA

$91.55

📉 -$8.17 (-8.2%) Post-Earnings

+52% YTD | Market Repricing Despite Record Results

🚀 Needs:

NVIDIA Hyperion platform successfully enables 100K+ Level 4 autonomous vehicles by 2027 with high utilization on Uber platform • Cross-platform penetration expands from 20% to 35%+ of eligible users spending 3x more • Uber One membership reaches 60M+ globally driving 75%+ of gross bookings • Grocery/retail scales to $20B+ run rate while maintaining variable contribution margin positive • Advertising and Uber AI Solutions each become $2B+ revenue businesses • AV transition improves platform economics with Uber capturing 30-40% take rate vs 20% today • Operating leverage drives EBITDA margins to 6.5%+ as scale benefits materialize

⚖️ Needs:

Management executes on 3-year framework: mid-to-high teens GB growth (17-19%) and high-30s to 40% EBITDA CAGR through 2027 • EBITDA margins expand to 5.5-6% through operational efficiency while "deliberately moderating" pace to invest in growth • Sparse geographies continue growing 1.5x faster than dense markets reaching 30-35% penetration • Uber One reaches 50M members with improving unit economics as 6-month+ cohorts turn profitable • Delivery maintains 20-22% growth with grocery/retail reaching $18B run rate • AV partnerships (Waymo, NVIDIA/Stellantis) progress on schedule but adoption slower than bull case • Insurance savings of "hundreds of millions" materialize in 2026 supporting affordability investments

⚠️ Risk:

Regulatory changes force driver reclassification as employees increasing costs 30%+ despite California insurance wins • AV unprofitability extends beyond management's "few years" projection with fleet operators demanding 40%+ of ride economics • Tesla/Waymo direct-to-consumer models gain traction bypassing Uber platform entirely • Economic recession reduces discretionary mobility spending by 20-30% • DoorDash European expansion and regional delivery competitors compress margins below 2% requiring subsidy wars • Cross-platform penetration stalls below 25% as consumers prefer specialized apps • Uber One membership growth slows as retention deteriorates for newer cohorts • Insurance costs spike in 2026 despite legislative wins • International regulatory crackdowns limit expansion in high-growth markets

💰

What Happened

Revenue: $13.5B (+20% YoY), beat by $240M, accelerating from Q2

Earnings: Adj EPS $1.20 vs $0.70 est (71% beat), reflecting strong operational leverage

Trips: 3.5B trips (+22% YoY), mobility +21% significantly exceeded expectations, fastest growth since 2023

Users: 189M MAUs (+17% YoY), nearly 150M mobility users (all-time high), frequency +4%

Profitability: Adj EBITDA $2.3B (+33% YoY), 4.5% margin (40bps improvement), $9B FCF TTM

📈

Why It Matters

Cross-Platform Power: Only 20% use both mobility & delivery; cross-platform users spend 3x more and retain 35% better

Profitability Model: Management deliberately moderating margin expansion pace to invest in growth while committing to annual profit dollar growth

AV Markets Outperform: Phoenix, Austin, Atlanta (Waymo markets) growing 2x faster than rest of US; driver earnings remain strong

Delivery Acceleration: Fastest growth in 4 years; grocery/retail at $12B run rate growing faster than restaurant delivery

Insurance Wins: California legislation reducing coverage limits to save "hundreds of millions" in 2026

🎯

What's Next

Q4 Guidance: High teens GB growth, low-to-mid-30s EBITDA growth; tracking to 3-year framework commitment

Six Strategic Focus Areas: Trip→lifetime experience, hybrid AV future, local commerce, multiple gigs (AI Solutions), merchant growth engine, generative AI

Uber One Expansion: 36M members in 42 countries (vs 28 a year ago), 2/3 of delivery bookings, expanding to mobility

New Products: Uber Elite launching Q4/Q1; Joby air taxis integration 2026; Toast partnership for seamless restaurant onboarding

AV Scale-Up: NVIDIA Hyperion platform enabling 100K Level 4 vehicles; Stellantis partnership starting with 5K vehicles

💡

Bottom Line for Retail Investors

The brutal 8.2% post-earnings selloff reveals a critical truth: Uber's execution is near-flawless, but the market had priced in perfection. Despite beating on every metric—revenue, EPS, trips, users, EBITDA—investors sold because Q4 guidance implies slight deceleration and the path to autonomous profitability is "a few years" away. This creates a compelling entry point for long-term investors. Management revealed only 10% monthly penetration in top 10 markets and just 20% cross-platform usage (where users spend 3x more). The $12B grocery/retail run rate is growing faster than core delivery and just turned contribution margin positive. CEO Dara's "deliberately moderating margin expansion to invest in growth" strategy is exactly what you want from a platform with decades of runway ahead. The selloff reflects short-term traders upset that Q4 won't match Q3's blowout acceleration—but for patient capital, getting a 20% discount on a company generating $9B in free cash flow while building the world's largest autonomous mobility network is the opportunity. At $91.55, the risk/reward has dramatically improved from yesterday's $99.

🚀

Cross-Platform & Penetration Opportunity

3x Spending Power: Cross-platform users spend 3x more, retain 35% better; only 20% penetrated today

Massive TAM Runway: Top 10 markets only 10% adult monthly penetration; 30% of riders never tried Eats, 75% never tried grocery

Sparse Geographies: Suburban markets growing 1.5x faster than dense cities, only 20% penetrated with huge upside

Product Innovation: Wait & Save, UberX Share, and personalized cross-sell (e.g., Starbucks on way to work) driving adoption

💎

Profitability Framework & Cash Machine

$9B Free Cash Flow: TTM FCF generation funding $20B buyback program, reducing share count significantly

Delivery Transformation: EBITDA margin improved from low 2% (late 2023) to nearly 4% today, now variable contribution positive on grocery/retail

Margin Strategy: Deliberately moderating expansion pace (4.5% today) to invest in long-term growth while committing to annual profit dollar growth

3-Year Framework: On track for mid-to-high teens GB growth, high-30s-to-40% EBITDA CAGR commitment through 2027

🤖

Autonomous Vehicle Platform Leadership

NVIDIA Hyperion Reference: Level 4 architecture available to all OEMs; every new car could be L4-ready for rideshare by 2035

Proven AV Success: Waymo markets (Phoenix, Austin, Atlanta) growing 2x rest of US; Austin driver earnings outpacing national average

Data Collection Advantage: Building robust sensor stack, collecting rideshare-specific data for partners; can scale via fleet and IC drivers

Barbell Investment: Premium products (Black, Reserve, Uber for Business) funding AV losses; proven model replicated 10+ times successfully

📦

Delivery, Membership & New Revenue Streams

Uber One Momentum: 36M members (42 countries), 2/3 of delivery GB; 6-month+ members become profit positive via retention and cross-platform

Grocery/Retail Breakout: $12B run rate growing significantly faster than restaurant delivery; now variable contribution margin positive

Toast Partnership: Seamless POS integration for 1.2M merchants; automatic Eats enablement, helping Toast expand internationally

Uber AI Solutions: New gig platform for AI training work (voice, video annotation, query rating); PhD-level roles with premium pay; landing "ton of customers"

⚖️

Regulatory & Labor Uncertainty

Employee Reclassification: Ongoing legal battles could force driver employment status increasing costs 30-40%

California Wins Offset Risk: Recent legislation reducing coverage limits ($1M→$60K individual) saves "hundreds of millions" but regulatory landscape remains fluid

International Restrictions: Multiple markets imposing new regulations, taxes, and operating requirements

Gig Worker Legislation: Several states considering minimum pay requirements and benefit mandates for platform workers

🚗

Autonomous Transition Execution Risk

AV Currently Unprofitable: Management stated "AV won't be profitable for a few years"; requires ongoing investment while building liquidity

Tesla/Waymo Competition: Direct-to-consumer models could bypass Uber platform; Waymo scaling vertically integrated service in multiple cities

Take Rate Compression Risk: AV fleet operators may demand higher economics than human drivers, potentially squeezing Uber's 20% take rate

Fleet Financing Needs: Building global cleaning/charging infrastructure and balance sheet investment in early fleets creates execution complexity

💸

Valuation & Macro Concerns

Post-Earnings Selloff: Stock down 8.2% despite earnings beat shows market pricing in perfection; high expectations create downside risk

Premium Multiple: Trading at 27x forward P/E vs historical range; YTD gains (+52%) may have front-run 2+ years of growth

Recession Risk: Discretionary spending on rides highly cyclical; 2008-2009 saw taxi usage decline 15-20%

Growth Deceleration: As law of large numbers kicks in, maintaining mid-teens growth becomes increasingly difficult at $50B+ run rate

🔥

Competition & Market Share Defense

European Delivery Competition: Competitors entering UK, France, Spain, Germany aggressively; DoorDash expanding after acquisitions create "integration mess"

DoorDash Global Battles: Competing in Australia, Japan, Canada with Uber gaining share but requiring ongoing investment to defend

Regional Players: Lyft, Bolt, DiDi, Grab competing in key markets with local advantages and regulatory relationships

Margin Pressure Risk: Delivering 4-year record growth may require elevated driver incentives and consumer promotions to maintain momentum