🚀 Needs:

Revenue growth sustains low-double digits • VAS accelerates to $13B+ (25%+ growth) • Visa Direct hits 16B transactions (+27%) • Agentic commerce drives material new volumes • Operating leverage from AI-driven efficiencies

📊 Needs:

FY26 guidance achieved: low-double digit revenue growth • Payments volume +9% trajectory holds • Cross-border +11-12% sustained • OpEx grows in line with revenue • Consumer spending resilience continues

⚠️ Risks:

Consumer spending weakens materially • Cross-border travel declines • Incentives spike beyond 20% renewals guidance • Tax rate rises to 19-20% range • Agentic commerce/stablecoins fail to materialize

💰

What Happened

Q4 REVENUE: $10.7B, up 12% YoY | FY25: $40B, up 11%

Q4 EPS: $2.98, up 10% YoY | FY25: $11.47, up 14%

FY25 PAYMENTS VOLUME: $14T, up 8% YoY constant dollars

FY25 TRANSACTIONS: 258B processed, up 10% YoY

Q4 CROSS-BORDER: Up 11% (ex-intra-Europe), e-commerce +13%, travel +10%

📈

Why It Matters

RESILIENT CONSUMER: U.S. payments +8% in Q4, higher spending bands driving growth

DIVERSIFIED BUSINESS: Broad exposure across credit/debit, discretionary/non-discretionary, consumer/commercial

VAS MOMENTUM: FY25 VAS grew 23% constant dollars to approach 30% of revenue mix

CMS ACCELERATION: Q4 commercial payments +10%, FY25 CMS revenue +15%

CAPITAL RETURNS: Q4: $4.9B buyback + $1.1B dividends | Dividend raised 14% for FY26

🎯

What's Next

FY26 GUIDANCE: Low-double digit revenue & EPS growth | Q1 guidance: high-end low-double digits

INCENTIVE OUTLOOK: ~20% of payments volume up for renewal, incentive growth similar to FY25

TAX RATE GUIDANCE: 18.5-19% (up from sub-18% in FY24-25) as one-time benefits fade

OPEX INVESTMENT: Low-double digit growth matching revenue, Q2/Q3 peak due to Olympics & FIFA

AGENTIC COMMERCE: Visa Trusted Agent Protocol launched, Intelligent Commerce powering live transactions

💡

Bottom Line for Retail Investors

Visa delivered a fortress-quality fiscal year with FY25 revenue up 11% to $40B and EPS up 14% to $11.47, proving its global payments network remains unstoppable. Management's excitement is palpable: "I don't ever recall being so excited about the opportunities ahead of this company." The FY26 guidance calls for continued low-double digit growth in both revenue and EPS, with consumer spending resilient, cross-border strong at 11%, and VAS now approaching 30% of revenue growing mid-20s. The company's investing heavily in agentic commerce (already powering live transactions), stablecoins ($140B+ facilitated since 2020), and next-gen VisaNet with 50%+ code built using generative AI. With 12.6B Visa Direct transactions (+27%), 16B tokens issued, and Olympics/FIFA World Cup sponsorships driving Q2-Q3 FY26, the growth levers are firing. You're paying 34x P/E for quality, but this is the only toll road on $14T in annual payment flows with industry-leading margins and a 14% dividend increase.

🌍

Hyperscaler Network of Networks

12B ENDPOINTS: 4B cards, 4B bank accounts, 4B digital wallets - unmatched global connectivity

700B+ API CALLS: FY25 across 3,700+ endpoints = Visa-as-a-Service stack powering ecosystem

TOKENIZATION SCALE: 16B+ Visa tokens (up from 10B in May 2024), targeting 100% e-commerce

NEXT-GEN VISANET: Cloud-ready, microservices architecture with 50%+ code built using GenAI

💸

Cash Generation Machine

MARGIN EXCELLENCE: 97.8% gross margin and 66.8% operating margin = pricing power

FCF CONVERSION: Converts 50%+ of revenue to free cash flow, $17B+ returned YTD

ROE POWERHOUSE: 53% return on equity shows exceptional capital efficiency

CAPITAL LIGHT: Minimal capex requirements allow massive shareholder distributions

🚀

New Flows Scaling Fast

VISA DIRECT: 12.6B transactions in FY25 (+27% YoY), expanding cross-border payouts globally

VAS APPROACHING 30%: FY25 VAS revenue +23% constant dollars, now ~$12B annually

COMMERCIAL VOLUME: FY25 $1.8T (+7%), Q4 accelerated to +10% with cross-border strength

TAP TO EVERYTHING: 79% of face-to-face transactions are taps, 1,000 transit systems globally (+19% growth)

🤖

Agentic Commerce & Stablecoin Leadership

LIVE AGENTIC TRANSACTIONS: Visa Intelligent Commerce powering transactions, Trusted Agent Protocol launched

STABLECOIN MOMENTUM: $140B+ facilitated since 2020, 130+ linked card programs in 40+ countries

SETTLEMENT EXPANSION: 4 stablecoins on 4 blockchains, $2.5B+ annualized settlement run rate

VISA ACCEPT: Launched in Sri Lanka, targeting 25 countries, enables 7M sellers to accept cards with smartphone

⚠️

Macro Headwinds Looming

CONSUMER SPENDING RISK: High inflation + elevated rates could finally crack spending resilience

RECESSION EXPOSURE: Discretionary spending most vulnerable in economic downturn

TRAVEL VOLATILITY: Geopolitical tensions, fuel prices could hammer cross-border volumes

CREDIT QUALITY: Rising delinquencies at card issuers could reduce transaction volumes

🏦

Regulatory & Incentive Pressure

CLIENT INCENTIVES: 20% of payments volume up for renewal in FY26, rate pressure ongoing

TAX HEADWIND: Rate rising to 18.5-19% in FY26 from sub-18% as one-time benefits expire

GLOBAL REGULATION: EU and other regions capping interchange fees, pressuring long-term margins

ANTITRUST RISK: DOJ/FTC may target Visa's market dominance and merchant agreements

💳

Disruptive Payment Competition

REAL-TIME RAILS: FedNow, RTP, PIX enabling instant account-to-account transfers bypassing cards

BUY NOW PAY LATER: Affirm, Klarna, AfterPay capturing point-of-sale transactions

DIGITAL WALLETS: Apple Pay, Google Pay, Venmo disintermediating card networks

OPEN BANKING: APIs allowing direct bank connections, reducing card dependency

⚠️

Macro & Execution Risks

CONSUMER WEAKNESS: High-spending bands driving growth - vulnerable if affluent consumers pull back

OPEX MATCHING REVENUE: Low-double digit expense growth limits margin expansion opportunity

Q3 FY26 TOUGH COMP: Lapping strong volatility benefits and low incentives from Q3 FY25

INNOVATION EXECUTION: Heavy investments in agentic commerce, stablecoins must deliver material volumes to justify spend